Stock price when the opinion was issued
Shares are back to July 2024. Will this be closer to $300 or $500? The easy answer is $500. $300 would mean a lot of fundamental concerns on the macro side of the market. Look for guidance ahead. Are they still on schedule to spend $13 billion this year? And what will they get in return for that? Their last Q4 revealed that their AI business surprisingly surpassed their revenue run rate of $13 billion, which was a lot sooner. Companies like this are spending alot, but they are making money back in AI.
One, a monster quarter, which he expects including a little lift in their Azure cloud business. MSFT is talking a lot about quantum computing, and a lot of people see them as the reserve for quantum (and be the Defense Dept.'s go-to for quantum, which he doesnt buy), but estimates in this area are low, which could be another catalyst.