
TSE:ERF
Huge winner last year. An example of how a stock can be unfairly punished and unfairly cheap and where you need people’s perception to change. 25% of their production is in the US Bakken play so are not exposed to as much differentials. About 25% of production in the US Marcellus play, so are not as exposed as much to the basis, the difference between Canadian and US natural gas. Still trading at a discount to some of its peers. Trading at around 6 times and pays a pretty healthy dividend. However, payout ratio is about 100%, so thinks they are using a little debt to pay some of the dividend. You could be looking at 15%-20% upside this year.
Had a great run this year. Still off of its highs of around $33, so if you’ve held it for a while, you are either possibly looking for a place to get out or you become a very long, long term investor. He would look on a shorter-term for the trend line to break. The whole sector is weak today and you can’t tell how it is going to run until we get into February. There is good support coming in the next couple of weeks. If it gets weak before the seasonal period gets started, he would look for the $17 to hold. Quite often you get your weakest just before a new run starts in a sector.
Stock has performed quite well over the last couple of quarters and likes what they have done. A wonderful kind of multiyear story. Although it looks like it has done quite well in the last few quarters, it still has a lot of upside. New CEO cleaned up the asset base and lowered operating costs. Inexpensive and has a lot more upside. Can see $23 in the next 12 months.
Thinks they’ve basically completed their asset repositioning program and are making good inroads in terms of increasing production for the last couple of quarters. Recently made another acquisition in the Marcellus so have a good play in this area. Still trades at a bit of a discount to the group. As long as they can continue to keep executing, that valuation discount should close.
Beat earnings for the 4th time in a row. Production beat by 3% in spite of selling assets which they had to do to get their debt down, which is at a very good level now. Showing very admirable spending discipline having only deployed a 3rd of their capital budget. Still cheap relative to the group. Trades at 6X EBITDA to adjusted cash flow versus its peers at around 7.9.
Have beaten expectations for the last three quarters in a row. Trades at an enterprise value discounted as a cash flow, at 5.8X versus the group of 8.2X but is offering comparable growth. Much better balance sheet than its peers. Effective payout ratio is 120%, which is in line with the group. Showing really good cost control this year.
Trading cheaper than their peers. Trading at an EBITDA to adjusted cash flow of about 5.7% and their peers are at 7.9%. Had 4 quarters in a row of real impressive operations, improved asset concentration and spending discipline. Payout ratios are coming down. Very low debt levels.