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Stock Opinions by Laura Lau

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets. Believes we are in a place where we will have a global synchronous expansion. This should be good for Canada. Expects long term increase rates to increase. You want to be in plays with more growth. Consumer discretionary is a good place to be. Near term, the unemployment numbers are improving in the US. With Taper talk going from talk to action, she thinks it will actually occur in March at the earliest. Thinks this has already been factored into the markets. Crude oil she thinks will hit $90 and be an intermediate bottom.

Unknown
DON'T BUY
Chorus Aviation Inc

The dividend should stay stable but may not increase. In 2020 the contract is over. She doesn’t own it because of this cliff risk.

Transportation & Environmental Services
BUY
Torc Oil & Gas Ltd

One of the newer dividend paying stocks. Expects they can increase production. Payout ratio is just under 100%. Valuation is at the lower end of the dividend paying range. This could be a very good entry point. 4.7% dividend paid monthly.

oil / gas
BUY
Bankers Petroleum

Things got definitively over hyped. The new CEO has definitely turned things around. It is a very cheap stock. Have been free cash flow positive for the last 3 quarters.

oil / gas
DON'T BUY

Liability with the spill in Alberta is not yet known. Nickel prices are affecting the stock right now. Madagascar ramp up is not going as expected and that is what people are concentrating on. Dead money but with the 5% dividend.

integrated mines
WAIT
Parkland Fuel Corp

Good dividend paying stock. Over hang is a contract with Suncor that ends at the end of this year and will result in quite a bit of drop in revenue. People will realize when they report the first quarter. You want to buy after this.

merchandising / lodging
BUY

Large DRIP program causes dilution, but they cancelled the premium drip program. They pay out 45% of their cash flow. It is not a big deal as long as people don’t opt out of the DRIP program. She is comfortable with them because a lot of the old trusts have a much higher all in payout ratio. They have stopped making acquisition and are now growing production organically.

oil / gas
PARTIAL SELL

New CEO came in and is rationalizing the menu and that will help going forward. Hedge funds don’t want them to spend money in the US. With such growth over the last few years it may be time to re-balance so it is max 4-5% of a portfolio and therefore a partial sell.

food services
PAST TOP PICK
Baytex Energy Corp

(Top Pick Nov 8/11, Down 11.29%) Heavy oil differentials have to come down. This is the time for the biggest differentials and will improve in the summer. 6.25% dividend.

oil / gas
PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Nov 8/11, Up 36.97%) No longer exists. She would have kept the shares in the settlement.

oil / gas
PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Nov 8/11, Down 21.45%) Sentiment has been more and more negative against Columbian stocks. They could be bought out. She is neutral on the stock.

oil / gas
BUY
AutoCanada Inc.

Mostly western Canada. Auto dealerships. SUV purchases greater there and margins are higher so they are in the sweet spot. Average age of autos is over 10 years and people are starting to buy them again. Buy private dealerships and cut costs. They are going to up their acquisitions to 5 per year as well as to go into other dealerships than Chrysler. They have enough capacity on the balance sheet that they don’t have to go to the market to make an acquisition. Every quarter they raise their dividend 1 cent. 1.9%

specialty stores
BUY

Oil weighted producer and will do a good job of increasing production next year. They are going to have a 35% bump in production. Are going to put some infrastructure in place Feb. or March.

oil / gas
BUY
Granite Oil Corp

Have done a good job finding two big oil pools. What they need to do now is to grow production and she thinks they can do that. Balance sheet is good. She hopes they will get taken out as soon as they prove it out.

oil / gas
SELL

Undergoing a strategic review process. May sell assets, restructure debt, or cut dividend (over 100% still). Thinks they have to do all three. It could be dead money.

electrical utilities
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