Stock Opinions by Laura Lau - Stockchase Experts
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Laura Lau

On Stockchase since : Jun 2009

Senior Portfolio Manager at Sentry Select Capital

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Stock Opinions by Laura Lau - Stockchase Experts

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General Market Comment 

December 2, 2013

Markets. Believes we are in a place where we will have a global synchronous expansion.  This should be good for Canada.  Expects long term increase rates to increase. You want to be in plays with more growth.  Consumer discretionary is a good place to be.  Near term, the unemployment numbers are improving in the US.  With Taper talk going from talk to action, she thinks it will actually occur in March at the earliest.  Thinks this has already been factored into the markets.  Crude oil she thinks will hit $90 and be an intermediate bottom.

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Markets. Believes we are in a place where we will have a global synchronous expansion.  This should be good for Canada.  Expects long term increase rates to increase. You want to be in plays with more growth.  Consumer discretionary is a good place to be.  Near term, the unemployment numbers are improving in the US.  With Taper talk going from talk to action, she thinks it will actually occur in March at the earliest.  Thinks this has already been factored into the markets.  Crude oil she thinks will hit $90 and be an intermediate bottom.

Unknown
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Laura Lau

Senior Por, Sentry Select Capita...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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DON'T BUY
Chorus Aviation Inc(CHR-T) 

December 2, 2013

The dividend should stay stable but may not increase.  In 2020 the contract is over.  She doesn’t own it because of this cliff risk.

Transportation & Environmental Services
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The dividend should stay stable but may not increase.  In 2020 the contract is over.  She doesn’t own it because of this cliff risk.

Transportation & Environmental Services
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Laura Lau

Senior Por, Sentry Select Capita...

Price Price
$3.820
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Torc Oil & Gas Ltd(TOG-T) 

December 2, 2013

One of the newer dividend paying stocks.  Expects they can increase production.  Payout ratio is just under 100%.  Valuation is at the lower end of the dividend paying range.  This could be a very good entry point.  4.7% dividend paid monthly.

oil/gas
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One of the newer dividend paying stocks.  Expects they can increase production.  Payout ratio is just under 100%.  Valuation is at the lower end of the dividend paying range.  This could be a very good entry point.  4.7% dividend paid monthly.

oil/gas
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Laura Lau

Senior Por, Sentry Select Capita...

Price Price
$10.610
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Bankers Petroleum(BNK-T) 

December 2, 2013

Things got definitively over hyped.  The new CEO has definitely turned things around.  It is a very cheap stock.  Have been free cash flow positive for the last 3 quarters.

oil/gas
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Things got definitively over hyped.  The new CEO has definitely turned things around.  It is a very cheap stock.  Have been free cash flow positive for the last 3 quarters.

oil/gas
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Laura Lau

Senior Por, Sentry Select Capita...

Price Price
$4.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY

Liability with the spill in Alberta is not yet known.  Nickel prices are affecting the stock right now.  Madagascar ramp up is not going as expected and that is what people are concentrating on.  Dead money but with the 5% dividend.

integrated mines
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Liability with the spill in Alberta is not yet known.  Nickel prices are affecting the stock right now.  Madagascar ramp up is not going as expected and that is what people are concentrating on.  Dead money but with the 5% dividend.

integrated mines
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Laura Lau

Senior Por, Sentry Select Capita...

Price Price
$3.390
Owned Owned
Unknown

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WAIT
Parkland Fuel Corp(PKI-T) 

December 2, 2013

Good dividend paying stock.  Over hang is a contract with Suncor that ends at the end of this year and will result in quite a bit of drop in revenue.  People will realize when they report the first quarter.  You want to buy after this.

merchandising/lodging
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Good dividend paying stock.  Over hang is a contract with Suncor that ends at the end of this year and will result in quite a bit of drop in revenue.  People will realize when they report the first quarter.  You want to buy after this.

merchandising/lodging
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Laura Lau

Senior Por, Sentry Select Capita...

Price Price
$18.160
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY

Large DRIP program causes dilution, but they cancelled the premium drip program.  They pay out 45% of their cash flow.  It is not a big deal as long as people don’t opt out of the DRIP program.  She is comfortable with them because a lot of the old trusts have a much higher all in payout ratio.  They have stopped making acquisition and are now growing production organically.

oil/gas
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Large DRIP program causes dilution, but they cancelled the premium drip program.  They pay out 45% of their cash flow.  It is not a big deal as long as people don’t opt out of the DRIP program.  She is comfortable with them because a lot of the old trusts have a much higher all in payout ratio.  They have stopped making acquisition and are now growing production organically.

oil/gas
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Laura Lau

Senior Por, Sentry Select Capita...

Price Price
$40.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PARTIAL SELL

New CEO came in and is rationalizing the menu and that will help going forward.  Hedge funds don’t want them to spend money in the US.  With such growth over the last few years it may be time to re-balance so it is max 4-5% of a portfolio and therefore a partial sell.

food services
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New CEO came in and is rationalizing the menu and that will help going forward.  Hedge funds don’t want them to spend money in the US.  With such growth over the last few years it may be time to re-balance so it is max 4-5% of a portfolio and therefore a partial sell.

food services
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Laura Lau

Senior Por, Sentry Select Capita...

Price Price
$63.120
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
Baytex Energy Corp(BTE-T) 

December 2, 2013

(Top Pick Nov 8/11, Down 11.29%) Heavy oil differentials have to come down.  This is the time for the biggest differentials and will improve in the summer.  6.25% dividend. 

oil/gas
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(Top Pick Nov 8/11, Down 11.29%) Heavy oil differentials have to come down.  This is the time for the biggest differentials and will improve in the summer.  6.25% dividend. 

oil/gas
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Laura Lau

Senior Por, Sentry Select Capita...

Price Price
$42.080
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Provident Energy Ltd(PVE-T) 

December 2, 2013

(Top Pick Nov 8/11, Up 36.97%) No longer exists.  She would have kept the shares in the settlement.

oil/gas
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(Top Pick Nov 8/11, Up 36.97%) No longer exists.  She would have kept the shares in the settlement.

oil/gas
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Laura Lau

Senior Por, Sentry Select Capita...

Price Price
$12.270
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
Parex Resources Inc.(PXT-T) 

December 2, 2013

(Top Pick Nov 8/11, Down 21.45%) Sentiment has been more and more negative against Columbian stocks.  They could be bought out.  She is neutral on the stock.

oil/gas
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(Top Pick Nov 8/11, Down 21.45%) Sentiment has been more and more negative against Columbian stocks.  They could be bought out.  She is neutral on the stock.

oil/gas
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Laura Lau

Senior Por, Sentry Select Capita...

Price Price
$6.380
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
AutoCanada Inc.(ACQ-T) 

December 2, 2013

Mostly western Canada.  Auto dealerships.  SUV purchases greater there and margins are higher so they are in the sweet spot.  Average age of autos is over 10 years and people are starting to buy them again.  Buy private dealerships and cut costs.  They are going to up their acquisitions to 5 per year as well as to go into other dealerships than Chrysler.  They have enough capacity on the balance sheet that they don’t have to go to the market to make an acquisition.  Every quarter they raise their dividend 1 cent.  1.9%

specialty stores
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Mostly western Canada.  Auto dealerships.  SUV purchases greater there and margins are higher so they are in the sweet spot.  Average age of autos is over 10 years and people are starting to buy them again.  Buy private dealerships and cut costs.  They are going to up their acquisitions to 5 per year as well as to go into other dealerships than Chrysler.  They have enough capacity on the balance sheet that they don’t have to go to the market to make an acquisition.  Every quarter they raise their dividend 1 cent.  1.9%

specialty stores
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Laura Lau

Senior Por, Sentry Select Capita...

Price Price
$43.880
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY

Oil weighted producer and will do a good job of increasing production next year.  They are going to have a 35% bump in production.  Are going to put some infrastructure in place Feb. or March. 

oil/gas
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Oil weighted producer and will do a good job of increasing production next year.  They are going to have a 35% bump in production.  Are going to put some infrastructure in place Feb. or March. 

oil/gas
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Laura Lau

Senior Por, Sentry Select Capita...

Price Price
$5.940
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Granite Oil Corp(GXO-T) 

December 2, 2013

Have done a good job finding two big oil pools.  What they need to do now is to grow production and she thinks they can do that.  Balance sheet is good.  She hopes they will get taken out as soon as they prove it out. 

oil/gas
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Have done a good job finding two big oil pools.  What they need to do now is to grow production and she thinks they can do that.  Balance sheet is good.  She hopes they will get taken out as soon as they prove it out. 

oil/gas
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Laura Lau

Senior Por, Sentry Select Capita...

Price Price
$9.140
Owned Owned
Unknown

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SELL
Atlantic Power Corp.(ATP-T) 

December 2, 2013

Undergoing a strategic review process.  May sell assets, restructure debt, or cut dividend (over 100% still).  Thinks they have to do all three.  It could be dead money.

electrical utilities
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Undergoing a strategic review process.  May sell assets, restructure debt, or cut dividend (over 100% still).  Thinks they have to do all three.  It could be dead money.

electrical utilities
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Laura Lau

Senior Por, Sentry Select Capita...

Price Price
$3.690
Owned Owned
Unknown

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