
TSE:ERF
(A Past Pick Oct 2/13. up 24.7%.) Just suspended the stock dividend program today. It was a sweetener. Management has said this is going to help build shareholder value longer term, which he agrees with. It is going to alienate some shareholders. Sold half his position when the stock was around $26 and has now just sold the rest on the news. Expects more downside, but will probably go back in.
Very bullish on natural gas prices, especially over the medium to longer term. Eventually companies like this will get the benefit of much higher commodity pricing as we start to take our gas and send it to other parts of the world through LNG. This company has done a good job of increasing production. Management has done a good job of turning this business around.
This is a solid name. Management has done an awesome job of deleveraging over the past couple of years and refocusing their drilling efforts. Likes that 50% of their production is US, Bakken and then Marcellus. Marcellus rates have been getting better over time, just as a lot of operators have. Do have some pricing risks, which they have been open about. Thinks that 30%-40% of their gas is exposed to the blowout in the basis differential. He saw the upside in their Bakken acreage. Stock has been trading at it really big discount, but over time that differential has narrowed. Feels the real easy money has been made. As a long-term investor looking for yield, it is a very solid name.
If you are looking for a nice blend of dividends and a bit of growth, this company would be a wise choice. Probably one of the longest income trusts out there, a couple of decades. Nice blend of gas and oil. Still cheap versus its peers and has the potential to give you low double-digit total returns annually over the next couple of years.
(A Top Pick Nov 15/13. Down 9.25%.) When he thought this was getting a little ahead of itself at $25, he sold half his position. When it got to $20, and he saw the wheels potentially coming off, he sold more. He still has a little bit left. Very good relative to their peers and are very sustainable.