Enerplus Corp (ERF.TO)

Have been shifting from gas production to oil. Have this prolific area in North Dakota, which is Bakken oil. Cut their distribution earlier this year so their cash flows are more in line with what their exploration plans are. Natural gas weighting should move down from 70% to about 60%. 8.7% dividend should be sustainable.

Sector has been trashed in the past year. If he were doing a “tax loss selling” basket this year, this would be one he would look at. If people are selling their losers and trying to realize that gain over the last few weeks, as a selling pressure abates, you often have a lift. This is a good company.

Has been one of the poorest ones to own. About 50% gas and 50% oil. They had a big land position they weren’t operating and decided to operate them and it cost more than they expected. If Nat Gas prices stay down, it is tough on these companies. Leave it for the next month or two. He is holding his, but you could use the tax loss selling. If winter gets hold these companies can turn on a dime.

Cut their dividend. He had thought they were getting back on schedule and felt it wouldn’t be cut. A week and a half ago he got stopped out again. In these cyclical names it is best to step aside when trouble brews. You will be better in a year but he prefers others.

Has had a move up since June. There is some resistance that is going to come into effect at around $19. If we can get this above $18, it will probably entice a little bit of money into it. Right now it’s probably a reasonable Buy as a short-term investment idea. Would buy this and if he gets to $18 would add to your holdings.

They took some tough medicine and cut their dividend in half. This is a value play with 50% gas exposure and 50% oil exposure. Could be a turnaround position. In 6 months this name will do very well.

Cut their distribution and may have to cut again. Payout ratio is still elevated at about 160 effective payout ratio. Probably better names in this group. If you want natural gas exposure, look at Arc Resources (ARX-T) that is flush with cash and hedged for 2012-2013. If you want more oil exposure, go for Crescent Point (CPG-T). If you want Brent exposure because it is widening over West Texas you would go for Vermilion Energy (VET-T). If you want heavy oil exposure, which is narrowing a lot to the differentials, he would choose Baytex Energy (BTE-T).

Dividend is safe. Cut within the last couple of months. Market was indicating the cut was necessary but stock has rallied back. You missed it to potentially capture the upside. They are improving the balance sheet. They are moving things in the right direction.

Nice little breakout – looks pretty good.

Sees it going lower.