Canadian Pacific Rail (CP.TO)

Has been watching lately. Does not own right now. Is a blue chip stock, but can be volatile. If trend heads upwards, would recommend buying. 

His preference due to the recent acquisition of Kansas City. Still has synergies to go, better offerings for customers. High barriers to entry. Trades at a higher premium to CNR, which just pulled back on earnings.

Really likes it and its acquisition, gives it a stronger position than competitors. Now the only company with a complete rail network between Mexico and Canada, making it a terrific investment. Very strong run for next 5 years. Prefers it to CNR.

This is another example of an oligarchy. He holds CN and not CP because its price is elevated compared to CN. There are some issues lately with labour for both railways. However railways are a good long term holding since we need them to move products across North America and they are cheaper than trucking.

Car loads were up 2% in Q2 YOY. He owns neither Canadian rail. Perhaps there are more goods being moved to anticipate Trump imposing tariffs if he wins. The rails will be stagnant for a while.

TFII is up 17% YTD, so not much of a pullback. On a YTD basis, outperforming the railroads. He likes both those businesses. Canada has good geography for trucking and infrastructure. 

CNR is the laggard. CP is doing nicely. He still regrets not switching from CNR to CP. 

Growth significantly driven by increased industrial activity, near-shoring is increasing demand. Benefited from higher US shipments, offsetting lower Canadian grain and coal volumes. This just reflects the stronger US economy. Strong growth in coming years. 27x is a bit expensive, but growth is higher too. Potential 11% upside from here.

He sold. Likes it long term, technical trends are still there. However, missed Q1 in April. Half of revenues come from Canada, and he sees a sluggish Canadian economy going forward. 

Pace of lows has slowed a bit, narrowing to what's called a "falling wedge". It it can break out to the upside, that would be really bullish, say a close above $80. If it continues to carry downwards, the $75 round number is coming up, looks like a bit of support around $72.50, and then larger support around Oct/Nov lows in high $60s.

Important thing is we're also still keeping an eye on the transports going into the summer and what do they mean for the economy. Seeing signs of stagflation -- economy slowing in US and Canada, but inflation remains high.

Enjoys an oligopoly, but prefers CP which has a better footprint though you pay a higher multiple, which its growth justifies. Long term, CP will be a bigger winner. CN remains a fine business. He added on weakness. Sometimes it's worth buying momentum, but so is buying on pullback.

Likes the rail industry, essentially an oligopoly, can't replicate rail infrastructure. A "soft" cyclical -- pricing power, transports diverse goods. Synergies and cost savings from acquisition. Even though economy is slowing, they carry necessary goods, so OK as long as not an outright recession. You can hold rails through the cycle. She owns CNR.

Their assets are irreplaceable. Buying KC Southern will take longer than expected to absorb, but eventually, they will offer a huge network across North America. Great managers and company. Be patient.

Peak at beginning of year, then down pretty significantly, 12% haircut. Next level to look at is $95-96 range, give or take $3. Perhaps even as low as $90. 

Always look at RSI against the S&P, and since 2023, rails have been down against the S&P. Now the rails are separating themselves from the S&P, so he expects a bit more weakness. Rails are usually good long-term stocks to buy.

Not a lot of competition, CNR is the only similar competitor. Barrier to competing is nearly insurmountable. Not founder-run, founder-own. Excellent job compounding shareholder wealth over the long term. Strong company, wide moat, expect 10-15% compounding long term.

Buy this one over CNR, hands down. Trades almost at 1.0 on price to growth.