Canadian Pacific Rail (CP.TO)

Rails depend on overall economic activity. Rates will probably produce at least a temporary slowdown in economic growth. Price has come off. Next cycle could be 3-7 years from now. Starting to look attractive, good time to look at where you might pick it up. He hasn't jumped in yet. Kansas City acquisition makes it more competitive.

Great acquisition of Kansas City by CP was a game changer. CNR is the gold standard in North America. US is not in a recession yet, but if it does happen, all the rails will get cheaper. Don't settle for just a 1% differential from the historical average, when you might be able to get it 20% cheaper.

He prefers trucking, though CP now has an integrated network across North America after the KC deal. But the consumer sector is less robust now. CP is probably good medium/long-term, but will lag short-term.

It is a cyclical stock and he sees a pullback in the economy. There may not be even a soft landing so rates could still rise. He is not keen on railway stocks.

CP PEG is almost even at 1.0, so it's the best value. Though he likes this one, this is the one he'd trim in his portfolio if he were absolutely forced to.

Yes, and certainly on any pullback. Great company. Merger will benefit in the long run, synergies haven't started yet. Those new assets are why he prefers it to CNR. Long term, it will be one of the best railroads you can own.

It's still in an uptrend though there's been some consolidating. It has to take out the high of late 2022 before you buy. The chart isn't bad.

He likes the oligopoly-type names with few competitors. #2 market cap in the industry. Robust network connecting key markets. Acquisition lets them grow further. Strong management, highly committed to profitability. Steady margin improvement. Rising demand for freight services. Slow and steady, outperformed the TSX for decades. Yield is 0.68%.

It is doing well. The Kansas City acquisition was expensive, He prefers CN which has a lower valuation and more upside over the 2 to 3 years.

Attractive industry with strong, defensive attributes. Coming into a time when there's potential for the economy to weaken, with a big impact on the rails. His preference in the space because of footprint and recent acquisition. Very attractive. Long term, onshoring is a benefit. Well run. Wait, buy on pullback.

Very strong company with duopoly business model.
High value infrastructure assets.
Has outperformed S&P 500 index.
Excellent company to own long term.

PE ratios are too close to call. Yield on CNR is about 2%, versus 1% for CP. No one's going to buy it for income. Looking at the FMV, the stock prices are so close for each, you really can't judge. 

Big difference is the book value. CP looks so cheap on price to book because of accounting decisions on its Kansas City purchase. So he can't tell if that's real or not. When he looks at CNR's SVA chart, it has an easy downside in weak markets to about $116. That's not trivial. 

Dead heat on a merry-go-round. Neither is reasonably attractive right now.

Would buy neither. We're heading into a recession or slowdown later this or next year. Neither stock will do if this happens. But if you're bullish about the economy, the rails will do well and CP will do better because of the Kansas expansion.

Very valuable acquisition over the long term. May take a while to realize the synergies, but they'll get there. Future acquisitions will be difficult for all rails, so this one was very timely. Can't replicate those assets. Can now service Canada, US, and Mexico directly. Will benefit from onshoring. Yield is 0.74%.

Wait to buy when recession hits bottom.
Good company, but not at this price.
Expecting better time to purchase shares.