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Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)

BUY

This is a stock that she has to own in her yield fund if she believes that oil prices are going to be stable or go higher. She does believe this so she does own the stock. Has not operated well for a long time, and has had quarter after quarter of disappointments with their Syncrude asset.

COMMENT

All oil sands companies are facing the same issue, their bad image on environment. They are all spending money ameliorating properties and making things work better. He believes this will be developed and oil will be produced and will get to market. He prefers Suncor (SU-T) because of its vertically integrated operations, and Canadian Natural (CNQ-T) because it is a better operator, and has better holdings. He is positive on the oil sands.

DON'T BUY

This has not been his favourite for many years. This is a company where, about every 6 months, something blows up, burns down, etc. This is also old technology. You can find other oil stocks that pay better yields. They need capital in a big way. Feels there is some risk in the 5.8% dividend. (See Top Picks)

COMMENT

A distribution type of company. Built to produce a sustainably long term dividend. However, it’s only source of cash flow is by owning a percentage of the Syncrude operation in Fort McMurray. Unfortunately that is the first oil sands mining operation, and has a lot of very expensive legacy assets. You have to watch very carefully the kind of costs they incur to produce a barrel of oil compared to other oil sands mining next door. Costs are going up on their production, which makes the dividend, long-term, more worrying.

DON'T BUY

Not a big fan. Around the world, our oil sands are bashed and pummelled. There are so many better oil companies out there to buy.

COMMENT

Has been a little less loved for the last 7 years because a lot of issues including the spread between West Texas - Brent. This stock has been very, very stable and pays a nice dividend. Any time it gets in the $20 range, it is a no-brainer. Right now it looks a little bit toppy. If this goes down to the low $22, you’ll probably see it pick up pretty quickly.

COMMENT

(Market Call Minute.) Much higher payout ratio and higher yield than Suncor (SU-T) or Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) so would much prefer them.

HOLD

It was moving up with the price of oil until they announced an outage. He is debating if he should sell or not. Maybe in the short term there is something better to own.

WEAK BUY

(Market Call Minute) In the right group, but he prefers CNQ.

BUY

As long as oil prices hold in the current area, the dividend should be safe. Not only is it safe, but they should have a significant increase next year. This is because the free cash flow will grow substantially when they finish the 2 major capital expenditure projects later this year. Just bought this recently. His target is $25. There is a good dividend yield. Given current oil prices, you should expect to see a 20% bump in the dividend next year.

DON'T BUY

(Market Call Minute) Pure play exposure to operations problems at an upgrader. Modest dividend yield and growth expectations only.

COMMENT

Has had a great move in its present period of seasonal strength and is up substantially since the year began. Substantially overbought at present levels. We are nearing the end of the seasonal strength and this follows the same seasonality. May 9 is the average exit date for the energy sector. Look to take profits on strength between now and May 9. Sit it out and then come back during the next period of seasonal strength of July through until October.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

They are driving down the costs the right way. This is a core name for investors. It makes sense at $20.

DON'T BUY

Has small position. No set payout ratio. They always seem to have a problem of some kind. There are better names you could own that offer more stability.

COMMENT

Had to increase their CapX spending for operational issues, so you are not going to see a lot of production growth. This is going to be a play on oil prices.

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