Canadian National R.R. (CNR.TO)

This has pulled back. The grain crop in Western Canada has been light. Growth rates have been good for the last couple of years, so people have been working for them to slow down. On a long-term basis, it has been a wonderful company to own. They still have the ability to move forward and grow with the economy, and gradually take market share away from trucking, etc.

From a seasonal point of view, rails do not do well at this time of year. In fact, there is a pullback in the overall transportation sector. The chart shows this has broken its upward trend. He has a small Short position on the transportation sector. Rails during the month of August, since 1990, have produced an average loss of 2.6%, and have only been positive 42% of the time.

Thought this was a little expensive for some time, and yet it kept moving up. It is definitely overpriced at present levels. Multiples are quite high. The dividend is nothing to write home about. He would sit on the sidelines and see what happens over the next while.

Rails are starting to look a little iffy. The chart looks like it has a slight toppy looking formation going on. It looks like it is testing the bigger upward trend line, which is running from 2016. The chart shows a small neckline break, but the bigger picture is, is the big trend line still being held? $100 is going to be significant for the stock. If it holds it over the next couple of months, then you are probably okay. If it breaks it by much, and stays below $100 for long, it could be a problem.

He is looking to buy this. It has come into his model, but he needs a little bit of discretion as to when to pull the trigger. It has seen some short-term support levels at around $106, which brought in a lot more selling down to around $103. If we get the procyclical bump in the market, he would stick around with this. Expects some weakness next week. Seasonality kicks in around September.

Rails in general are interesting businesses in that they are very unique assets. They are very economically sensitive. If you believe that an eventual fiscal stimulus will come to the US, names like this will do very well. He is a little more skeptical on that. In general, this is fully valued.

He likes this, but would like an entry point that started in the $90 area. Wait for this to drop under $100.

One of the lowest dividend yields that he holds at 1.5%. Likes the company long term, but it is pretty rich at these prices. The dividend has been growing at mid-teens over the last 5 years. This company has great prospects ahead of it. He has been trimming his holdings recently. He would like to see the dividend at 2% before accumulating more.

This has had quite a run and wouldn’t buy it at this time. All the rails are expensive. He would like to see this pull back at least 5%-8%.

The economically sensitive sectors in the market rested from December through May. Since May, we have seen a reacceleration in financials, industrials and transports. He likes transports. The rails have a real exposure to North American economy. This one has great north-south exposure, and has been one of the best performing rails in North America.

Just guided 10% EPS over the next 5 years. They claim they have a competitive advantage in technology, that will allow them to stay ahead of the competition. Great balance sheet. Very good growth. He models 12% EPS growth over the next couple of years. The only thing is, it is very expensive.

Any pullback on this is a “must buy”. It keeps going straight up. Management is fabulous.

He made some profit on it. It is facing the same problem as the FANGs. It is not a bad stock. A lot of stuff needs to correct, however. It needs to correct back to its trend line.

The rails are good. They are typically a little expensive in terms of valuation, but they are a great way to play this industrial theme that is on. You would be hard-pressed to find a much better run company than the rails, and there is really only a choice of 6. He would buy a little bit every day and buy little more on any pullback.

This is underpriced compared to Canadian Pacific (CP-T), and he would give this one the edge. It will probably go to $118.51.