Stock Opinions by Daniel Lloyd - Stockchase Experts
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Daniel Lloyd

On Stockchase since : Jul 2016

Portfolio Manager at Forge First Asset Management

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Stock Opinions by Daniel Lloyd - Stockchase Experts

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General Market Comment 

November 24, 2017

Market. Going into the year, he underestimated the potential for equities to advance. Was too bearish, so too cautious. The US economy continues to surprise him to the upside. Europe appears to be improving. Financials conditions are still at record easy levels. The Chinese appear to be orchestrating a soft landing. It’s sort of a Goldilocks scenario that he hadn’t thought was going to play out. We are in a weird space, where it feels like you are going to need an endogenous event to knock the stocks off their perch.

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Market. Going into the year, he underestimated the potential for equities to advance. Was too bearish, so too cautious. The US economy continues to surprise him to the upside. Europe appears to be improving. Financials conditions are still at record easy levels. The Chinese appear to be orchestrating a soft landing. It’s sort of a Goldilocks scenario that he hadn’t thought was going to play out. We are in a weird space, where it feels like you are going to need an endogenous event to knock the stocks off their perch.

Unknown
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Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio , Forge First Asset Ma...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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COMMENT
Empire Company (A)(EMP.A-T) 

November 24, 2017

It seems as though the turnaround story is taking hold. The Canadian grocery space is a tough place to be. Pricing is competitive. They have issues with Amazon (AMZN-Q) digging deeper and deeper into the grocery space. Minimum wages are going up across the board. On a relative basis, this looks as good as any.

food stores
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It seems as though the turnaround story is taking hold. The Canadian grocery space is a tough place to be. Pricing is competitive. They have issues with Amazon (AMZN-Q) digging deeper and deeper into the grocery space. Minimum wages are going up across the board. On a relative basis, this looks as good as any.

food stores
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Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio , Forge First Asset Ma...

Price Price
$24.920
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT

This is a real industry and there will be winners and losers, but the cumulative market cap associated of these companies feels that they are beyond bubble territory now. Making incremental gains from this point forward is going to be very difficult.

E.T.F.'s
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This is a real industry and there will be winners and losers, but the cumulative market cap associated of these companies feels that they are beyond bubble territory now. Making incremental gains from this point forward is going to be very difficult.

E.T.F.'s
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Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio , Forge First Asset Ma...

Price Price
$13.930
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
National Bank of Canada(NA-T) 

November 24, 2017

Thinks Canadian banks in general are going to be dragged higher by macro forces, not least of which is energy. This has a pretty solid energy franchise on the investment banking side. Have well above average return on equities, which would typically afford them higher multiples. ROE is about 18%.

banks
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Thinks Canadian banks in general are going to be dragged higher by macro forces, not least of which is energy. This has a pretty solid energy franchise on the investment banking side. Have well above average return on equities, which would typically afford them higher multiples. ROE is about 18%.

banks
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Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio , Forge First Asset Ma...

Price Price
$63.310
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Equitable Group(EQB-T) 

November 24, 2017

Canadian Banks? He looks favourably on Canadian banks in general, because he likes the backdrop for energy. This is his favourite, and is actually the smallest of the group. Trades at the lowest valuation of the entire group. Trades at 1X Book compared to the National Bank (NA-T) at 2X. The Canadian bank trade should continue to drift higher.

Financial Services
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Canadian Banks? He looks favourably on Canadian banks in general, because he likes the backdrop for energy. This is his favourite, and is actually the smallest of the group. Trades at the lowest valuation of the entire group. Trades at 1X Book compared to the National Bank (NA-T) at 2X. The Canadian bank trade should continue to drift higher.

Financial Services
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Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio , Forge First Asset Ma...

Price Price
$65.290
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Canaccord Financial Inc(CF-T) 

November 24, 2017

Banks are doing well, but unfortunately it is at the expense of the independent brokers in Canada. This is certainly cheap, but the Canadian broker space in general is challenged, because you have the banks on the investment side of things and are doing smaller and smaller things.

investment companies/funds
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Banks are doing well, but unfortunately it is at the expense of the independent brokers in Canada. This is certainly cheap, but the Canadian broker space in general is challenged, because you have the banks on the investment side of things and are doing smaller and smaller things.

investment companies/funds
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Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio , Forge First Asset Ma...

Price Price
$4.670
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Manulife Financial(MFC-T) 

November 24, 2017

Has a very strong Asian franchise, which is very beneficial, as it is the high growth area of the world. The issue he would have is their earnings sensitivity to the interest rate curve, which continues to flatten.

insurance
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Has a very strong Asian franchise, which is very beneficial, as it is the high growth area of the world. The issue he would have is their earnings sensitivity to the interest rate curve, which continues to flatten.

insurance
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Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio , Forge First Asset Ma...

Price Price
$26.900
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
KP Tissue Inc(KPT-T) 

November 24, 2017

The tissue space in general is struggling with pricing, probably as a result of over pricing in North America. Having a pure play in this area is not something you would want to do. Expects it will be challenged for the next couple of quarters. Prefers Cascades (CAS-T), which has an offset with container board/cardboard packaging.

Consumer Products
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The tissue space in general is struggling with pricing, probably as a result of over pricing in North America. Having a pure play in this area is not something you would want to do. Expects it will be challenged for the next couple of quarters. Prefers Cascades (CAS-T), which has an offset with container board/cardboard packaging.

Consumer Products
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Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio , Forge First Asset Ma...

Price Price
$13.780
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Cascades Inc(CAS-T) 

November 24, 2017

Had a big miss last quarter, largely on the back of their tissue exposure, so this is a pretty opportune time to be buying. The free cash flow is in the neighbourhood of 15%. If there was an upswing in the tissue space, this would benefit, but is not something he is holding his breath for.

east coast forestry
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Had a big miss last quarter, largely on the back of their tissue exposure, so this is a pretty opportune time to be buying. The free cash flow is in the neighbourhood of 15%. If there was an upswing in the tissue space, this would benefit, but is not something he is holding his breath for.

east coast forestry
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Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio , Forge First Asset Ma...

Price Price
$12.590
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY

The predominant player in the Canadian Bakken. Their decline rate is about 30%, which is higher than what he would like to see. Trading at 5X cash flow, so it is very, very cheap. Assets are reasonable, and are probably benefiting from strong oil prices and a weaker Cdn$, yet nobody seems to care. There are better names to own.

oil/gas
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The predominant player in the Canadian Bakken. Their decline rate is about 30%, which is higher than what he would like to see. Trading at 5X cash flow, so it is very, very cheap. Assets are reasonable, and are probably benefiting from strong oil prices and a weaker Cdn$, yet nobody seems to care. There are better names to own.

oil/gas
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Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio , Forge First Asset Ma...

Price Price
$9.600
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY

Life is as good as it is going to get for metallurgical coal producers, trading at about $200 a ton. Restart of mines is going on around the world and in North America. Looks cheap, but given the cyclicality of the business, it is pricing in maximum earnings.

precious metals
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Life is as good as it is going to get for metallurgical coal producers, trading at about $200 a ton. Restart of mines is going on around the world and in North America. Looks cheap, but given the cyclicality of the business, it is pricing in maximum earnings.

precious metals
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Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio , Forge First Asset Ma...

Price Price
$29.640
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Northland Power Inc(NPI-T) 

November 24, 2017

If interest rates stay low, this company will benefit. They has very, very high-quality assets, both in Canada and Europe. Have carved out a nice position as a large offshore wind producer. Bidding on contracts all around the world at the moment. He likes renewable energy in general, as perpetual cash flow is a very interesting thing. Has a nice yield of 4.5%. A good place to be.

Utilities
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If interest rates stay low, this company will benefit. They has very, very high-quality assets, both in Canada and Europe. Have carved out a nice position as a large offshore wind producer. Bidding on contracts all around the world at the moment. He likes renewable energy in general, as perpetual cash flow is a very interesting thing. Has a nice yield of 4.5%. A good place to be.

Utilities
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Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio , Forge First Asset Ma...

Price Price
$23.970
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Cascades Inc(CAS-T) 

November 24, 2017

(A Top Pick Sept 15/16. Up 6%. Up 6%.) The 3rd quarter was not good. Owning down here is going to end up looking very good a year from now.

east coast forestry
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(A Top Pick Sept 15/16. Up 6%. Up 6%.) The 3rd quarter was not good. Owning down here is going to end up looking very good a year from now.

east coast forestry
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Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio , Forge First Asset Ma...

Price Price
$12.590
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
CI Financial Corp(CIX-T) 

November 24, 2017

(A Top Pick Sept 15/16. Down 22%.) *Short* He is still Short. The return represents the worst snapshot possible, but as he has held this for a long time, he is still profitable. Wealth management and mutual fund space in general has been a very tough spot. Feels the stock is still expensive.

investment companies/funds
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(A Top Pick Sept 15/16. Down 22%.) *Short* He is still Short. The return represents the worst snapshot possible, but as he has held this for a long time, he is still profitable. Wealth management and mutual fund space in general has been a very tough spot. Feels the stock is still expensive.

investment companies/funds
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Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio , Forge First Asset Ma...

Price Price
$28.680
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Transalta Corp(TA-T) 

November 24, 2017

(A Top Pick Sept 15/16. Up 28%.) *Long* (Pairs trade with a Short on TRP-T.) He still has both positions on.

electrical/electronic
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(A Top Pick Sept 15/16. Up 28%.) *Long* (Pairs trade with a Short on TRP-T.) He still has both positions on.

electrical/electronic
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Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio , Forge First Asset Ma...

Price Price
$7.500
Owned Owned
Yes

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