TSE:CNQ

Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO)

78.42
+1.37 (1.78%)
as of Oct 30, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Closed.
1410 watching
0
BUY ON WEAKNESS

Got beaten up tremendously but has had a nice rebound in the last 6-8 weeks. About half oil and half gas and of the oil, you have oil sands and heavy oil as well as some international. There is a little bit of risk if the gas price retreats between now and end of October so there might be a bit better entry point. He would like to see it under $30.

BUY

Has just added more to his position. Extremely undervalued. Horizon was shut down for a while because of production problems but is now fully back on line so you have the heavy oil side looking awfully good. Good production development growth. Not as levered to natural gas as they used to be so generating great cash flow. Good story. Cheap. Wouldn’t see $40 as being overly expensive.

BUY

Is a favourite of his and a bigger holding on the senior side. The market is looking for a rebound when Horizon gets back to 100,000-barrel range. It doesn’t have an upgrader so it is feeling the differential bite. Execution is the key always. Market is sensitive and is looking for execution. A great free cash-flow generator. Has the best leverage amongst the seniors except for Encanna. He added to it recently. The worst is over but it doesn’t mean you can't have problems.

COMMENT

Great Canadian name. Down about 44% from the beginning of the year. Has just had a rally.

DON'T BUY

He would not be a buyer at this time of oil sands companies

TOP PICK

Probably the most disappointing oil/gas stock in Canada in the 1st half of the year. Ran into problems on natural gas prices and more problems on the widening differential on the heavy oil and to top it all off ran into problems with their Horizon’s unplanned shutdown. Natural gas has improved a little, heavy oil differential has come down very sharply and they are back up to full production on Horizon. Trading below NAV.

TOP PICK

Very cheap. People were concerned that none of the oil sands companies would make any money because oil was going down to $60 a barrel and even if they could produce it profitably, couldn't get it out of Alberta. One way or another the government is going to make sure that Alberta can move its oil. No reason it can't be $45 in 12 months.

DON'T BUY

Falling stock. Thinks oil will soften. Drilling rigs will see to it.

BUY

(Market Call Minute.) Very cheap. Has suffered with declining crude.

BUY
(Market Call Minute.) Excessively cheap with price to cash flow of 4 times.
BUY
He has just bought some of this. Great company and very well run. A very large US seller has been selling it like crazy and he thinks he may have exhausted himself. If he gets up to $32-$33, he would sell half. It could get to $50 again.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Another beat up Canadian oil stock that is finally starting to show some signs of trying to bottom. His guess is that this stock will do like the other energy stocks and is going to start showing some good technical signs of upward movement from late this month through until the first week in October.
HOLD
Getting $65 long-term oil, well below what the median price needs to be for industry to replace production and declines to grow reserves. They need $70 for a 10% rate of return. Very good balance sheet.
BUY
Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) or Suncor (SU-T)? Has been extremely disappointed in CNQ. You could say it hasn’t done as well as Suncor because of technical problems with their upgraders and some outages, but that’s not the case any more. Thinks it’s negative market sentiment. In his view this is the better Buy and is really inexpensive here.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick July 26/11. Down 35.61%.) Still likes. The key factor that has influenced this in the last year has been oil prices, oil differentials and a couple of operational slip ups. Sees pretty significant upside potential in the next 12-18 months. Would start to get worried at around $75 oil.
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