Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO)

One of the biggest exploration companies in Canada. Top quality management team. Very disciplined. Cut back their natural gas drilling by a long way. Thinks they will do very well once natural gas prices recover which he expects might happen next year.

Thinks it’s safe to say that this is a company that cannot get taken over so you are buying on its fundamental value, ability to grow cash flow and hopefully its ability to start paying significant dividends. Reasonably priced.

If this doesn’t hold the $30 level, it looks like it will go back to $26. If you are going long, there are probably better places in the energy space than this. (See Top Picks.)

Suncor (SU-T) versus Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T)? This one is half gas and half oil with an oil sands bent to it and a bit of international. Suncor has been acting better than this one lately. At the start of “risk on” Suncor will do better. Also, we’ve had the differential narrow back again from Canadian oil to WTI making Suncor a beneficiary this quarter. This company will probably not benefit until next year. Prefers Suncor.

Ag Growth (AFN-T) or Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)? This is a fine company but he likes other things in the energy space better.

Very inexpensive at around 5X cash flow. Have a lot of reserves in the ground so should be trading at a higher multiple. Thinks there is some real upside on this one.

One of the largest oil/gas companies with operations in both the oil Sands (Horizons project) and UK North Sea and west Africa. One of the cheaper nat gas companies out there. Given that they don’t have a refinery in order to process some of that oil/gas and get better margins, it is underperforming but he sees them boosting their Horizon production and getting higher prices from both UK North Sea and West Africa. That should offset some of the pricing differentials here.

Has sold out of his energy positions recently. This one is below its 50 and 200 moving averages. Had a downtrend through the greater part of this year and there was an attempted breakout but hasn’t done a great job doing that. As we move out of this seasonally strong period for oils, he would not be overly bullish on oils. It really needs to break out past the $32-$33 area.

Suncor (SU-T) or Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T)? Owns both but if he had to choose he would probably go with CNQ, particularly today where it is selling off big on what he thought was reasonably good news. Could easily see $40 in the next 12 months.

(Market Call Minute.) Has been adding to his position recently. Likes the oil stocks in general. Great growth.

Would you switch from oils to golds? Energy stocks have done very well over the last 6-7 weeks. Period of seasonal strength for energy is from approximately July 24 until Oct 3^rd. This year the seasonal benefits for this came in little bit earlier than usual but now it is starting to show signs of rolling over. Now is the time to take some good profits. Gold “stocks” has seasonal strength from July 27 to Sept 25. Gold started earlier than usual this year but peaked out.

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) or Crescent Point (CPG-T)? Both are good companies but in the case of Crescent Point you do have the higher yield. This one is more of a capital gains story. Have a lot of cash flow to pay down debt. Their Horizons project is moving smoothly now. As they pay down debt, they will probably have another growth spurt.

Difference between this and Suncor (SU-T) and Cenovus (CVE-T) is that this one does not have upgraders so does not upgrade into refined products. Because of the wide differential between Brent and WTI, the companies that can crack the crude oil benefit more from Brent. Stock is discounting $80 long-term oil which he does not feel is sustainable. Good management. Stock is undervalued. Thinks fair value is about $40.

(Market Call Minute.) Chart is shaping up and it looks more interesting.

[Caller asked if banks were better] Oil prices are going up over the years. Financial services are a little more constrained. Depending on horizon, banks are less expensive than oil companies, so short term, he would favour banks but if you are trading, then you get more upside in oil sector. It is going up because of geopolitical risks, what is happening in the middle east.