Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO)

He asks himself why he would buy a Canadian oil stock here. What is going to drive the stock price is the price of oil. Has a real problem buying Canadian oil stocks here, possibly for the dividend. He is steering clear at this point.

Usually doesn’t invest in resources because this is not where you make money. What you want to do is buy the companies that supply the resources. This one hasn’t done well because of the differentials in oil.

Trading at a slight premium to its proved reserve value and you get good exposure to a shrinking in the heavy oil differential, but unfortunately this is going to take until 2014. Expect it will be the top performing large cap this year, in the 2^nd half rather than the 1^st half.

(Market Call Minute.)

Likes at this price. Been hurt recently by the heavy oil spread in Canada and the widening of the spreads. He expects this problem to disappear. If they don’t go ahead with the Keystone pipeline, there could be a rift in the stocks further out. Cheap.

Has been a very disappointing stock, presumably because of the concerns on heavy oil differentials. Very well run. Has potential to grow their oil part. If natural gas prices came back, they could certainly jack up that part of their business too. Cheap. Would buy it now with a 2-3 year view.

Likes energy. Would be a buyer. Model $37.28, 21% upside from model price.

Trading at roughly about 5X cash flow. Very cheap. Has been hurt over the past year because of the differential. If you have an optimistic view about future oil prices and narrowing of the differential, at these levels this is a good one to pick away at.

(Market Call Minute.) Has all the things he likes about the heavy-light differential. One of the “go to” names.

One of his favourite Canadian oil/gas companies. Have extensive properties in Canada as well as in Western Africa. Stock has come off quite a bit because they are essentially getting Canadian pricing for gas and oil. Starting to rail some of their oil down to the US. Once firmer gas and oil prices start to prevail, this should bode well for them.

The whole sector is not doing well. It looks like it is turning up but we don’t have the momentum and so it doesn’t bode well for the future.

(A Top Pick Feb 1/12. Down 27.99%.) Sold his holdings at about a 9% loss.

(A Top Pick Dec 16/11. Down 22.19%.) One of the best companies in Canada but he needed some tax losses so he sold

Not his favourite. Multiples are a little higher than the average. Horizon project is starting to pick up steam. Yield is nothing to write home about. Prefers others.

Should be better than it has been over the last year. A number of the large exploration/production companies have been under the gun because of falling oil prices. Expecting reasonable growth out of China, and this would mean that oil prices will likely hang in there. If they can ship more oil out of Alberta you should see a rising price in this.