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Canadian Natural RsrcsCNQ.TOCOMMENTDec 05, 2012Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 06, 2026. Market Open.
When asked to compare these four large companies if the price of oil drops, he felt that CNQ is a phenomenal company that's hard to beat. Suncor has been a turnaround story for the past two years. The quarterly reports have been much better. Rich Kruger is moving on to be the Executive Chair. If the price of oil does drop Imperial might be the best defensive play.
Editor's Note; For Cenovus, please refer to his previous answer.
Yes, he'd put new $$ in today. Buying stocks at 52-week highs isn't necessarily bad for your wealth (you'll actually do better than consistently buying at 52-week lows). Possible (but he can't say for sure) to retrace to mid-$50s if Iran war were to end.
On normalized oil prices, high single-digit FCF yield. Low-cost operator, decent production growth, strong balance sheet. Excellent capital allocation.
Oil reserves in a safe haven. Well run. If peace breaks out in the Middle East, all the energy names could retrace somewhat; if conflict escalates, then oil will run and you should take profits along the way.
If you're looking at a 3-10 year investment, by all means buy some energy here. But if you're looking for a 3-6 month trade, you have to be careful with these politically charged components of the market.
He can't tell you where the price of oil is going. He does know that demand continues to increase. One of the best capital allocators in the O&G space. Decades and decades of reserves. Increased dividend for 25-26 consecutive years.
For a generalist, long-term investor, trust the management of the quality leader. When oil turns down, this name will hold up better. If there was a pullback for no good reason, he'd buy more. Be patient and wait for your opportunity.
The question was on his preference between Suncor and CNQ. He would side with Suncor since it has more upside and CNQ's price is approaching fair value. Suncor has underperformed over the past week with the CEO stepping down. He had guided the company to a major turn-around. If the next CEO can continue to run the company as well as it has been running then he sees a 40% upside two years out.
All of the names such as Husky (HSE-T), Suncor (SU-T) and this one are very cheap and some are trading very close to BV. Issue is going to be, when do we see natural gas prices turn? Also, in the oilsands projects, costs, ability to expand, shortage of manpower, etc. are bothering the market right now. If we can get some progress on the fiscal situation in the US and more progress on the banking situation in Europe, heading into 2014-2015 he feels we are going to see a decent new economic cycle. But there is more pain ahead of us right now.