Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO)

One of his favourite Canadian oil/gas companies. Have extensive properties in Canada as well as in Western Africa. Stock has come off quite a bit because they are essentially getting Canadian pricing for gas and oil. Starting to rail some of their oil down to the US. Once firmer gas and oil prices start to prevail, this should bode well for them.

The whole sector is not doing well. It looks like it is turning up but we don’t have the momentum and so it doesn’t bode well for the future.

(A Top Pick Feb 1/12. Down 27.99%.) Sold his holdings at about a 9% loss.

(A Top Pick Dec 16/11. Down 22.19%.) One of the best companies in Canada but he needed some tax losses so he sold

Not his favourite. Multiples are a little higher than the average. Horizon project is starting to pick up steam. Yield is nothing to write home about. Prefers others.

Should be better than it has been over the last year. A number of the large exploration/production companies have been under the gun because of falling oil prices. Expecting reasonable growth out of China, and this would mean that oil prices will likely hang in there. If they can ship more oil out of Alberta you should see a rising price in this.

(Top Pick Dec 23/11, Down 25.37%) It is really, really cheap as it was a year ago when he also recommended it. As refineries come on it will increase. It’s a bench mark name. He overweights it and will continue to.

All of the names such as Husky (HSE-T), Suncor (SU-T) and this one are very cheap and some are trading very close to BV. Issue is going to be, when do we see natural gas prices turn? Also, in the oilsands projects, costs, ability to expand, shortage of manpower, etc. are bothering the market right now. If we can get some progress on the fiscal situation in the US and more progress on the banking situation in Europe, heading into 2014-2015 he feels we are going to see a decent new economic cycle. But there is more pain ahead of us right now.

Right now the oil space is not a good one to be in. This one is hitting a 52-week low. He would rather it come off its low so you have a better place to put a stop loss. The one positive thing is that there appears to be a lower low. The names he prefers are Husky (HSE-T) and Suncor (SU-T). The latter one for the yield play.

Going to spend $500 million on CapX, an 8% modest increase from last year. This is the largest producer in Canada. These companies are all way off the top and there is no significant fundamental reason why they should be very much higher. He doesn’t have any particular expectation. It should stay around this level.

Horrible performer. They have to seriously think about increasing their dividend to improve valuation.

He has this as an outperform with a $42 target. Yield of 1.4%. One of the issues that he has with Canadian oil is that he thinks that we are in a tough predicament of where he thinks oil prices are going to go in North America, so he is a little bit cautious.

Encana (ECA-T) or Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T)? Go for Encana. It is much better. 200 day moving average is flat and the stock is starting to flirt with it and probably going to break out. Downside risk is about $1 and the upside is to about $30. On CNQ the problem is you still have a falling 200 day moving average.

Looking back 5 years it is attractive because it is at the lower end of the range. Owning it at this point is ok but in the next couple of years it will be range bound. Get out at $33 and when it dips down you nibble at it again.

Just sold his holdings, partly for tax loss reasons and partly because he is changing his focus somewhat away from energy into other resource plays that will have better opportunities over the next 12-24 months. This is a 1^st class company but he is getting a bit nervous about the oil sands and their exposure there.