Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO)

There is uncertainty about one of their properties, Primrose, which has 2 leaks and is releasing bitumen. This company had this problem in 2009 and were ordered to stop steaming. Short-term guidance from this company is that there are no changes. Have stopped steaming but still have production. The concern is the impact for 2014. Has a proved reserve value of around $27, which would be his absolute worst scenario. If it ever approached that level, he’d be a very active acquirer.

(Market Call Minute.) Canada’s preeminent heavy oil producer. Likes the fundamentals of heavy oil going forward.

For longer term appreciation. Even in the short term on a valuation basis, he would lean toward this one. Paying less for their profitability than for BTE-T. CNQ has a low payout ratio. He would own it at the right price.

This is one of his favourite stocks in the space. On a price to cash flow basis, it is one of the cheapest at about 5X this year’s and next year’s cash flow basis per share. Looking at what the price of WTI has been doing relative to Brent and the narrowing of the spreads, (related to 1) transportation of oil by rail, 2) hope that Keystone will get passed and 3) if Ontario gas distributors can be assuaged with a TransCanada Pipe (TRP-T) conversion to transporting oil from West to East), these all speak well for this company. Can see $40 in the next 12 months.

This is one of the companies that is really going to benefit from the tightening of differentials. Technically it has broken up higher. He is watching this closely. Has had problems in the past but things seem to be working out alright. One of their problems is a leakage in one of their oil recovery projects and he is not sure of what the implication of this is.

Good long-term company but be aware of a correction at some point. You might be safer in some of the senior oil/gas companies because they have really been the dogs of the market for quite a long time so they are probably going to be sustained. For the long-term this company is all right but you are going to get corrections.

(Market Call Minute.) Feels this is the best looking one of the seniors and he just made a purchase today. Numbers will be improving going forward.

Thinks this will continue to do well if the sector generally recovers. The whole Keystone pipeline uncertainty has cast a pall over the whole industry, especially the oil sands.

This one has an enormous base. Resource stocks have somewhat of a seasonal period to move over the summer but this ends fairly shortly. The chart shows higher lows with a lid at around $33-$34. This could be called a bit of an ascending triangle and you want to see a breakout. If that were to happen, it would be extremely bullish. As a trader, you could Buy at the lower end of the trend line and possibly traded out at the resistance level of around $33.

Valuations are compelling right now. They are probably going to grow longer term. 3-5 years. It’s at a support level.

Which is your favourite large Canadian heavy oil producer? His favourite is Canadian Natural Resources because he thinks it is at the top of the Americans’ “Buy List”. The excess cash flow they are going to generate over the next 10 years is equal to the current Enterprise Value. He is bullish on heavy oil. He feels that Keystone will get approved.

Sold her holdings last year because of her concerns on the widening differential of Canadian crude versus WTI. This company was very vulnerable to the price differential. Differential has now narrowed somewhat. Before re-entering this stock, she would want more clarity on how they were going to move their crude from Canada into the US.

This is one of the companies that has been more conservative on their payouts to their investors. Have a huge resource potential. Catalyst for them is heavy oil pricing improving, which is why it has been weak over the last 1.5-2 years. If there is some positive news on Keystone, his view is that all heavy oil producer stocks will be up in mid-single digits. Doesn’t own it because of the lower dividend payout. Yield of 1.65%. (See Top Picks.)

Diversified globally with assets in West Africa, UK North Sea as well as in the oil sands in Canada. They have natural gas exposure. Continues to chug along nicely. Sees prices closer to the $40’s.

There is no CEO. Doesn’t concern him. He has owned this in the past.