Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO)

One of the larger Canadian producers. Started as a natural gas producer but is now a much more oil sand player. They have their Horizon project up and running and expanding. Had some environmental challenges in their other oil sand properties where they had to cut back in production, which has been putting a bit of a pressure on the stock in the last little while. He believes they have it under control and will surely be able to get back to producing what they used to. Well-run company and low cost.

There has been a return of interest to the large-cap Canadian names over the last month or so, predominantly from the US. This company is still quite attractive. Growth and free cash flow are quite tremendous over the next number of years. Valuation is quite attractive.

Thinks this is a good time to step in. They’ve had terrific results. Increased the dividend. 60%. They are really a power house producing 700,000 barrels a day with good growth prospects. Has a 12 month of $40 target.

(A Top Pick Nov 14/12. Up 20.8%.) Increased the dividend. 60% in the quarterly earnings, which makes a 90% increase in the dividends year-over-year. That shows you how confident they are going forward. Very diverse company. We are going to see better results from Horizon. Thinks they are close to firing on all cylinders. Cheap and he sees high $30s a year out.

(A Top Pick Dec 10/12. Up 18.91%.) Still likes. Canadian producers have traded at big discounts to the US producers for many years but we are hearing from analysts that they are starting to get a lot of calls from Europe and the US where investors have made a lot of money and are now looking at Canada, where things have not moved. This has a lot of leverage to oil prices. Great name to hold.

Has used as a cash substitute or trading mechanism. He thinks some of the momentum has been removed from the story. There are too many unknowns for him when he has other options.

(A Top Pick Oct 10/12. Up 12.79%.) Oil sands producers are doing a little bit better lately. The big concern was that there was no way to get their product to market. We still don’t know about the Keystone pipeline. People are concerned about oil by rail. Sitting on terrific reserves and are getting to be more efficient operators as time goes by. Operating at a very low multiple of cash flow. Feels there is real value here.

It is hard enough to make money in the oil sands stocks without them having operational issues as well. Prefers SU-T.

Almost a top pick. $45.13 model price, 35% upside. EBV+2 is $35.85, which is resistance. It has to go through that to realize higher prices. If you are patient you make money with it.

Had some problems operationally. Very well run. Have enormous natural gas assets that are not contributing to the bottom line right now.

A lot of uncertainty that will take a few months to resolve. Believes it will resolve and the asset is still there. Have to look at differential. This will come in eventually regardless of the XL pipeline. Oil will find its way to the US.

Very high quality company. Recent dip was probably a combination of rising rates in the economy, as well as Cdn resource companies having to deal with an ongoing struggle of getting their product down to the Gulf Coast. We are going to have to see some resolution as to what is going to happen with the pipeline infrastructure.

Lagged because of operational problems. He rates higher than SU-T, but still vulnerable to pipeline decisions.

(A Top Pick August 28/12. Up 7.46%.) Sold his holdings.

(A Top Pick August 12/12. Up 6.11%.) In the penalty box and probably deserves to be. Now at the lowest valuation on a relative basis to its historical valuation that we have seen in many, many years. One thing that it has going for it is that the heavy oil differential has narrowed significantly over the last year.