Bombardier Inc (B) (BBD.B.TO)

‘C’ series is delayed and orders are off. He sold. Let the ‘C’ series get off the ground.

Had an absolutely gorgeous breakout. Chart shows 3 higher lows. It has reached the old resistance point so there is a little bit of noise at around $4.50-$5. If it breaks out through that, then the sky is the limit and it could get back to the $7 area quite easily.

Doesn’t think too highly of this one as an investment for his clients. Very low margin business. They face huge competition from much better competition. You have to hope the Cdn$ falls but no one knows if that is going to happen. Balance sheet is atrocious.

They have their ‘C’ series that will have a first test flight in the next week or so. He found their balance sheet risk to be too high without having the actual order flow. He may look at this name again in the near future. The overall flavour out of the Paris Air Show was very positive for jets.

Embraer has just announced that they are in production with a jet that will be in competition with the C series. This will all come down to the flight test that is supposed to happen before the end of this month. Thinks there will be a real pop on this company when the new jet takes flight.

C series is an important part of their growth over the next 10 years but his call is not hinged on this taking off by June. Stock is cheap. They have high barriers to entry. He feels the Cdn$ is probably heading back down to $0.90. This will be a huge tailwind for them.

It is a bit over bought short term. He has trouble buying into this right now. If it corrects and comes back to support then that is the time to get into the trend. In the next couple of years you could get back to the $6-$7 range.

People are waiting to see the new jet.

Not his favourite. A bit lumpy so you never know where it is going. It should be a sell when it runs up on a new order, because it takes a long time to fulfill.

Tends to do alright here. This one will do well until mid-July and then falls off a cliff. 10% down on average over 17 years. It is bottoming right here and there is no reason to pursue it this time of year. Wait for third quarter.

Their recent numbers were pretty good and bookings are strong. Prefers Boeing. BBD is following in suit, though. Price breakout on the chart and you could own it.

It’s going to be about the ‘C’ series. Other divisions look promising but street wants to see if this thing can fly.

After collapsing after the last decade from the $20 level or so it has been bouncing around between $2.50 and $5. This has been a very low margin business and is very capital intensive. There is no real free cash flow generation here. Debt continues to increase. Involved in a potentially very expensive program with the C series airplane.

A lot of people have been focused on this with the advent of the C Series. Expects a test flight will be sometime later this summer. It will be interesting to see if the order flow is as rich. Not sure they are going to get the kind of market share that they were originally intending. On the mass transit side, he sees governments being restrained on spending. Not sure there is a lot of downside from here but if the C Series picks up, there could be significant upside. Too speculative.

Won’t own it for a while. Chinese regional jet market is divided into two companies, one of which is served by a competitor and the other by BBD. Problem with the ‘C’ series orders and specifically Porter. Island airport can’t take the ‘C’ series at this time.