
TSE:BBD.B
Waiting for the C series to get off the ground and with the delays along with everything else, he did not take a position in this one. (Stock has shown that other people have more faith.) On the basic business, rolling stock of subways and trains, they do an excellent job but it is very low margins. The risk on the airline side is fairly high. Have just signed some contracts for some sales and it may be that this is the time the stock will really take off.
Has spent a lot of time, effort and money on the C series, which is a larger plane than they have made in the past. It still hasn’t received a lot of traction. They are making a very big bet on this. Without the C series being successful, it is hard to see the stock doing well. Too much debt and too many issues.
Likes the aerospace cycle, but feels there are a number of better ways to play it then this, but this is a very good growth company. It all hinges on the C series. 1st flight occurred about 2 weeks ago and was a success. Feels management is expecting about 300 firm orders in the next 12-18 months. As orders come in and the platform matures, there will be a tremendous amount of cash flow being generated. He could see share buybacks and dividend increases as a result. You will have to be patient with this. 2.1% dividend yield. (See Top Picks.)
Not a winner at this point. Margins are still at 2009 levels. Leverage is still far too high. Cash flow is too weak. For margins to recover. They are going to need higher volumes and more than just a couple of product lines. Trades at a discount to the aerospace group by about 15%, but given his previous comments and execution risks, he can’t see it going anywhere.
(A Top Pick Dec 31/12. Up 45.26%.) Feels that aerospace is a dominant theme and the place to be. It’s a brave new world out there. Airlines are upgrading. He thinks this will break out and work higher.