Director of Research at Toron Investment Management
Member since: Nov '06 · 583 Opinions
Largest developer/manufacturer of synthetic insulins globally. Has been a great way of participating in the global diabetes pandemic. Has done well this year because there is heightened expectation that the US is going to approve a long lasting insulin Tresaba. If this gets launched in the US, growth could be in the low teens again next year. This is a hold.
A very large Spanish based bank. Have big franchises throughout Latin America as well as a British bank. Had to do a large and unexpected capital raise this year. There had been a bit of a relief rally in the Spanish market in 2013 and this did well, but still has too many dead assets on the balance sheet.
In the last 6 weeks or so, this bank has announced pretty significant restructuring, significant cost cuttings and are going to cut their way in order to get some kind of earnings growth. Have had many operational and regulatory challenges. Prefers Toronto Dominion (TD-T) which still has the opportunity to grow. This one is growth constrained, and potentially has some regulatory issues if they try to relocate their headquarters from London back to Hong Kong.
It is important to separate the outlook for the stock versus the company. They both have challenges. At the company level, it is no longer a fast growth company. The key areas where it makes its profits are pretty mature. It is hoping to develop new revenue lines through music streams, watches, etc. As the stock goes through the transition of being a very high growth company, to being a lower growth company, to being an average growth company you are going to get a rotation in their shareholder base. It is tough to see how the stock will do well over a sustained period of time.
Markets. The potential for higher interest rates and the stronger US$ has affected the performance of the markets. US markets are up 2% year-to-date, essentially unchanged, whereas European and Japan are up mid-teen rates year-to-date. Most of his US holdings are up and down, basically sideways. The strong contributors to performance have been European and Japanese names. Typically, expanding interest rates coincide with more rapid economic growth, and he sees economic growth continuing to stabilize and pick up on a global basis. Once you focus through the headwinds, profit outlook will improve into 2016. US and Canadian equity markets should start to pick up again as we get closer to 2016-2017. European growth was basically zero last year and will probably be around 1% this year, which is a horrible growth. It’s the incremental change of growth that is very, very positive for risk assets and how stocks will behave.