BlackBerry (BB.TO)

This is the time of the year when technology does well, but it is hard when an individual stock like this, as a niche, feeling it is going to have an impact. Technically there has been a little bit of a break out, and the stock has held at the key level of around $6, so that is a positive trend. Technically and seasonally this actually looks good.

This is just floating around his calculation of the Book Value. Until it has a positive transit somewhere down the road, which to him would be $11.46 Cdn, he doesn’t see any sense in owning it.

Some very smart investors own quite a bit of this. There is no question the CEO, John Chen, is way overpaid.

He does not know the seasonality. Technically it has long term support and a good base pattern when it recently moved above the reverse head and shoulders. There is resistance coming up at two levels. When it gets above $12 you have more confirmation that technicals are continuing to improve. The high from the current trading range should become the low for the next one.

He is Short this. Scores poorly on a lot of his metrics. They really don’t have a business that is generating much return on equity. Have had multiple missteps on their phone business. Not something he would want to own.

For most people this is a Hold. He had high hopes for the company, but it is very hard to get your head around it. They are trying to grow their licensing division, and to a degree are succeeding, but it is slow. The last gasp on devices is their coupling with the android devices.

(A Top Pick Aug 21/14. Down 11.6%.) Reshaping themselves into more of a software company. They are maintaining their special talents and security. Has a new handsets coming, which is nice. Their balance sheet is more in order now.

It had a negative transit at EBV +1 so he sold and it is at EBV. His model price is $1.58 which is amazing since it will lose money this year and next. He thinks it is dead money. If there is any positive transit, it would draw his interest.

There is a reasonable chance of this doubling, probably by way of an eventual takeover. They have $3 billion in cash on the balance sheet, plus they have a massive amount of patents. The current price would probably be the breakup value of the cash and the patents.

You don’t know if it will be worth a lot of money some day. It is a coin flip. They aren’t making any money in handsets. He thinks the ship has sailed. It is hard to see how it rights itself. They are giving it a heck of a try, however.

Their market share on devices is negligible. It is trading for close to cash in the bank and they lowered their burn rate to near zero. Still, you can’t make money on it. He thinks they will never get traction now. Earnings tomorrow with BNN coverage.

(Has this as a Short.) Despite having its big cash balance sheet, they don’t really have a lot of earnings and they just spent some of that cash on a big acquisition. To own this, you have to have a view that the BV is supported by the value of their patents alongside their cash, and that they are not going to keep burning that cash. Very low ROE.

This company is holding its own. Have cut back significantly on costs and have just made an interesting acquisition. A very high risk situation, and can be very volatile at times. John Cheng is a very methodical type of manager and he is fixing things as he goes along.

They are trying to evolve toward more software solutions. Their user base has declined. If they can go enterprise that will help. Capital is impaired and there is no dividend, unlike energy producers where there is a road to recovery.

This is too risky for him to invest in, and from a dividend perspective it doesn’t fit his model. At this point the likelihood of it becoming what it once was is fairly low. Very speculative. Thinks there are better places to see a return on your investments in the next 6-12 months.