Stockchase Opinions

John O'Connell, CFABlackBerryBB.TOCOMMENTJul 13, 2015

John Chen is doing a good job of turning the business around. The hardware business continues to be very, very challenged, and it is a lousy business to be in. It’s a software game now and they seem to be making some good progress. Their security features are very attractive. The question is can Chen make something out of this. It is still very early days in a very challenged environment. He thinks the stock is worth not much more than $15. If there is some takeover speculation and the stock gains in strength, don’t believe it, but take your money and move on.

$10.13

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$13.08

As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.

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SELL

Security rollout and significant spike in deployments are both positive. Overriding challenge is that it's a fallen champion. Can't expect more upside. Needs to "show us the money", but consistently.

WATCH

Technical situation has been positive from a trading perspective, marching higher since March. People don't understand the importance of its software in applications that can't afford to fail. Massive run in a short time.

Generating cash and some growth. A more speculative play in an important, growing area.

BUY

It's got interesting technology in the auto world. He's been looking at it. It got away from him and rose higher.

PARTIAL SELL
52-week high yesterday.

Now starting to take off. Transformed from phone maker to software company. Embedded auto software plus cybersecurity. Auto software is the story -- revenue grew, margins improved, stronger cashflow, good backlog, guidance higher than expected.

Is it a pure momentum name? Blown through all its targets. Might see a healthy pullback. Definitely take some profits. For the long term, core business model has changed. On her watchlist.

WATCH

Hats off to them for their last quarter. They're moving into car security software seems to be gaining traction as earnings rise. It's had a good run recently and the PE has really expanded, but growth remains single digit. Interesting and one to watch, but volatile.

WATCH

The stock has stabilized and their software is now being used in cars. Wants to see more sustainable growth to make a decision.

DON'T BUY

Effectively a security company now, and its security is very good. He'd want to see a few more years of substantial wins. He'd pass.

WEAK BUY

Interesting stock. YOY revenue growth of 15%. Price targets have moved up. Still some upside.

(Analysts’ price target is $9.65)
DON'T BUY

Has had a bit of a turnaround, and numbers are starting to back up the story. A very different company, now focused on 2 software businesses. Embedded in vehicles globally, now turning its sights to AI and robotics.

Recent rally driven by NVDA deal. Fundamentals look better, but execution still has to keep up. She'll watch from the sidelines. If owned, take some profits.

SELL

Software only, with some good offerings. Canadians have a soft spot for it, but it's an also-ran. Better places to put money, such as a cheaper OTEX or something with more of a moat. Take your $$ and look elsewhere.

SELL ON STRENGTH

Cybersecurity and car technology are both solid, long-term businesses, but not dynamic. He sees little growth. Disappointing, but wait for a bump to sell.

HOLD

Software geared very much to the automotive industry -- mainly infotainment but also autonomous driving platforms. Has done extremely well. QNX software embedded in 255M vehicles around the world. Room for growth. 

If you own it, stick with it. Buy some more ~$6.40, and a final third around $6 (doesn't think it'll go below that).

(Analysts’ price target is $8.60)
DON'T BUY

They provide back-end software in hundreds of millions of cars, plus they have a strong cybersecurity business. They aren't growing that quickly. Trading at 30x PE. Still not super cheap.

PARTIAL SELL

It popped recently, but it's not a good chart. Trim in tax-loss selling, if you hold.

WAIT

For this one, he's looking at the very right side of a 1-year chart. You can see the basing, but what you want to see is a breakout. Could be a swing trade, but doesn't really have enough movement to do that. Could go sideways forever, or break to the downside. Don't buy until you see that breakout.

His book Sideways goes into this strategy in detail.