BlackBerryBB.TOCOMMENTJul 13, 2015Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 21, 2026. Market Open.
You could almost argue that it's an auto parts company, with its QNX operating system. Very-high-end encryption software. Transformation has taken place. Nice niche, but he struggles to understand its economic moat for either segment. 60x forward PE. Risk/reward is unattractive.
He wonders if people really want it to do well, and perhaps tend to pay a bit too much for it.
The RSI analysis at his shop is all about the price, using mainly point-and-figure charting that takes out some of the noise beyond just price moves. So he doesn't look at volume too much.
Very highly ranked within the Canadian RSI universe. Underlying trend positive. Rallying nicely since April. If you want to be in it, you have to learn to live with the fact that it's going to be more volatile.
Technical situation has been positive from a trading perspective, marching higher since March. People don't understand the importance of its software in applications that can't afford to fail. Massive run in a short time.
Generating cash and some growth. A more speculative play in an important, growing area.
Now starting to take off. Transformed from phone maker to software company. Embedded auto software plus cybersecurity. Auto software is the story -- revenue grew, margins improved, stronger cashflow, good backlog, guidance higher than expected.
Is it a pure momentum name? Blown through all its targets. Might see a healthy pullback. Definitely take some profits. For the long term, core business model has changed. On her watchlist.
Has had a bit of a turnaround, and numbers are starting to back up the story. A very different company, now focused on 2 software businesses. Embedded in vehicles globally, now turning its sights to AI and robotics.
Recent rally driven by NVDA deal. Fundamentals look better, but execution still has to keep up. She'll watch from the sidelines. If owned, take some profits.
John Chen is doing a good job of turning the business around. The hardware business continues to be very, very challenged, and it is a lousy business to be in. It’s a software game now and they seem to be making some good progress. Their security features are very attractive. The question is can Chen make something out of this. It is still very early days in a very challenged environment. He thinks the stock is worth not much more than $15. If there is some takeover speculation and the stock gains in strength, don’t believe it, but take your money and move on.