BlackBerry (BB.TO)

Thinks John Chen is way overpaid, but also thinks he is a good operator. Has been hitting the goals that he set. Has this as a Hold in his portfolio. His initial Sell target is $17+.

There are better technology companies you could own. This really comes down to how quickly they can get their software out there. Their hardware products are the best, but they have been declining quarter after quarter. The hard part with this company is that the previous hardware devices came with a little bit of a service sweetener, and every time the number of hardware products goes down, the sweetener goes down too, which is almost a double edged sword for the company.

Their last numbers show that their software did okay. Thinks it is a turnaround story. Would like to see the numbers on their new phone. In a difficult environment in that they are competing with companies like Samsung and Apple, which dominate the market on the phone side. Wouldn’t own the stock at this price.

It looks like there is potential for upside. It has been in the radar lately and not doing as poorly as most people thought.

Thinks it is a beneficiary of ‘Guns over Butter’. Security is one of their specialties. It is trading heavier in New York. The stock has been going up in advance of good news with recent releases. BB-T is catching up very rapidly to its peers. It looks good on a relative basis and it is in the right sector. Also, it is badly out of favour right now.

To him this is a business tool. The iPhone is a great all-purpose tool and a great way to communicate with family, but as a business tool Blackberry is still the best. Wouldn’t be a buyer of the stock because there are just too many uncertainties.

This is the time of the year when technology does well, but it is hard when an individual stock like this, as a niche, feeling it is going to have an impact. Technically there has been a little bit of a break out, and the stock has held at the key level of around $6, so that is a positive trend. Technically and seasonally this actually looks good.

This is just floating around his calculation of the Book Value. Until it has a positive transit somewhere down the road, which to him would be $11.46 Cdn, he doesn’t see any sense in owning it.

Some very smart investors own quite a bit of this. There is no question the CEO, John Chen, is way overpaid.

He does not know the seasonality. Technically it has long term support and a good base pattern when it recently moved above the reverse head and shoulders. There is resistance coming up at two levels. When it gets above $12 you have more confirmation that technicals are continuing to improve. The high from the current trading range should become the low for the next one.

He is Short this. Scores poorly on a lot of his metrics. They really don’t have a business that is generating much return on equity. Have had multiple missteps on their phone business. Not something he would want to own.

For most people this is a Hold. He had high hopes for the company, but it is very hard to get your head around it. They are trying to grow their licensing division, and to a degree are succeeding, but it is slow. The last gasp on devices is their coupling with the android devices.

(A Top Pick Aug 21/14. Down 11.6%.) Reshaping themselves into more of a software company. They are maintaining their special talents and security. Has a new handsets coming, which is nice. Their balance sheet is more in order now.

It had a negative transit at EBV +1 so he sold and it is at EBV. His model price is $1.58 which is amazing since it will lose money this year and next. He thinks it is dead money. If there is any positive transit, it would draw his interest.

There is a reasonable chance of this doubling, probably by way of an eventual takeover. They have $3 billion in cash on the balance sheet, plus they have a massive amount of patents. The current price would probably be the breakup value of the cash and the patents.