Bank of America (BAC)

If you don’t own this, he doesn’t have a problem with you buying a small position here. This is beautifully positioned for a more positively shaped yield curve and valuation. They will probably start paying some dividends. He just thinks it has been a little too far and too fast. There will be a chance to get this cheaper once the initial fever cools off a little.

This will benefit in a higher interest rate and more robust growth environment. All of the US banks had a nice rally after the election.

It is coming into a pretty significant wall of resistance at about $18. It has hit many times and failed. Now it looks like it is trying to break out. Watch it. It might pull back. If it does not pull down below that $18 level for a couple of days it may be okay. Consensus is that the stock is overvalued, however.

Higher rates will push this higher. Higher rates will be stimulative and will create job opportunities in the financial services sector in the US. The banks are well capitalized and the dividends are safe. You might want to start with the regionals, and if you see a freeing regulatory environment, then definitely buy some of the money centred banks like this.

US banks have a different seasonality than Canadian banks. Historically the best time to own this bank is from around the end of January right through until May of each year. At this time of year, it does okay, but doesn’t outperform the market. Currently the stock is in a long-term slight upward trend, but his preference is to stick with securities which have strong seasonality right now. He would prefer a Canadian bank over an American bank right now.

He likes banks in general in a rising interest rate environment. It is mid on volatility relative to other banks. PE is 12 times and the yield is 1.8%. US Banks are cheaper than Canadian banks. He does not think mortgages will be a big issue in the US, unlike Canada.

(Market Call Minute.) Not his favourite. Would prefer J.P. Morgan (JPM-N).

If you want to play financials globally, you want to start looking at US financials. This has been in the penalty box for many years. US banks are really like utilities now. This is trading at 10X earnings, while power utilities are trading at 17-18 times earnings. As they start to raise their dividend, they can pay 4% yield. In 2 or 3 years it will look like a utility, but will be at about a 50% valuation discount. Dividend yield of 1.81%.

There are a lot of arguments that as interest rates rise, bank profits increase because margins increase. Looking back at historical evidence, there is actually no evidence whatsoever that earnings or margins increase as interest rates rise. You can make a case that as the Federal Reserve Board raises interest rates, the yield curve actually flattens. Banks are under extreme pressure in other areas that will more than offset those kinds of opportunities. Delinquencies are growing in the automotive sector.

His main bank exposure is Wells Fargo (WFC-N). If you look at the forward PE ratio on US banks, relative to Canadian banks, there was a time when they were very much cheaper. Looking at last Friday’s close on the PE going forward, he feels they are both roughly the same. That would be a disincentive for him to look any further at US banks. (See Top Picks.)

(A Top Pick Nov 16/15. Down 4.12%.) This hasn’t done much, but is sort of typical as all US financials haven’t gone anywhere, which is why he sold his position. There has been a constant deferral of monetary tightening. There is nothing wrong with it, but as an investor do you continue holding on and on when nothing is happening?

(Market Call Minute.) Really likes the investment dealers as a group, and he likes this bank’s numbers.

American banking is not expensive, and the banks are quite reasonably priced. Also, they still haven’t raised their dividends as much as they could. There are likely good times ahead. If interest rates rise, once in 2016 and 2 or 3 times in 2017, this allows banks to increase their net interest rate margins. Expects this will be net positive for the banking industry. Not his 1^st choice, but not a bad choice.

She owns another US bank (WFC-N). You want to buy US banks because of rising interest rates and an improving economy. You could buy BAC-N here and she thinks it will do relatively well over the next year. We should start seeing improvement in the yield.

He likes this quite a bit. The stock recently broke out over one of his key technical breakpoints, and looks to have a pretty good count. The minimum count he would see would be something in the order of 19 ($?), but FMV actually shows quite a bit higher. The issue is what is going to happen to interest rates. If rates are going to go up, this will benefit all the US banks. (This was almost one of his Top Picks today.)