Stock Opinions by Jim McGovern - Stockchase Experts
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Jim McGovern

On Stockchase since : Jun 2016

CEO at Arrow Capital Management

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Stock Opinions by Jim McGovern - Stockchase Experts

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General Market Comment 

June 5, 2017

Market. The market was already poised to head higher before Trump was elected. The trends were already in place. What is interesting is that the Trump bump everyone was looking for i.e. get Long banks and get Short bonds, etc. had a really nice run up until the middle part of the new year, and has subsequently given everything back. People are now very much in a “wait and see” hold pattern with respect to the whole reflation trade. Several sectors are really propelling the S&P 500 narrow rally, the consumer discretionary and technology. The backdrop for technology is really conducive. We are in a period right now where you have inflation falling, real GDP growth accelerating, and that backdrop is about as good as you can get for the technology sector. Inflation is still benign. Technology has now moved up to about 25% of the S&P, which is really, really substantial. People should be rebalancing portfolios now. At some point there is going to be a real reversion trade. He has Short positions now on the broad indexes of Canada and Australia.

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Market. The market was already poised to head higher before Trump was elected. The trends were already in place. What is interesting is that the Trump bump everyone was looking for i.e. get Long banks and get Short bonds, etc. had a really nice run up until the middle part of the new year, and has subsequently given everything back. People are now very much in a “wait and see” hold pattern with respect to the whole reflation trade. Several sectors are really propelling the S&P 500 narrow rally, the consumer discretionary and technology. The backdrop for technology is really conducive. We are in a period right now where you have inflation falling, real GDP growth accelerating, and that backdrop is about as good as you can get for the technology sector. Inflation is still benign. Technology has now moved up to about 25% of the S&P, which is really, really substantial. People should be rebalancing portfolios now. At some point there is going to be a real reversion trade. He has Short positions now on the broad indexes of Canada and Australia.

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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
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COMMENT
Amazon.com(AMZN-Q) 

June 5, 2017

The classic category killer. In his funds, he is Long this company and Short the things that Amazon is killing, certain retailers, etc. Not a cheap stock at 28X enterprise value to EBITDA. It certainly has a lot of runway in front of it. They are getting involved in every vertical with respect to retailing. He is nervous.

specialty stores
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The classic category killer. In his funds, he is Long this company and Short the things that Amazon is killing, certain retailers, etc. Not a cheap stock at 28X enterprise value to EBITDA. It certainly has a lot of runway in front of it. They are getting involved in every vertical with respect to retailing. He is nervous.

specialty stores
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$1011.340
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Toronto Dominion(TD-T) 

June 5, 2017

Like a lot of Canadian banks, it has US operations, which would probably be the one area he would be most excited about, in part because the US banks find themselves in a better environment than they do in Canada. Thinks there will be legislation changes in the US, which favours bank shares in general. The flipside is the constant buzz on the Canadian real estate market. This bank operates in the prime mortgage market. Doesn’t think you’re going to make a lot of money in any of the Canadian banks right now. He would much rather focus on banks internationally rather than domestically.

banks
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Like a lot of Canadian banks, it has US operations, which would probably be the one area he would be most excited about, in part because the US banks find themselves in a better environment than they do in Canada. Thinks there will be legislation changes in the US, which favours bank shares in general. The flipside is the constant buzz on the Canadian real estate market. This bank operates in the prime mortgage market. Doesn’t think you’re going to make a lot of money in any of the Canadian banks right now. He would much rather focus on banks internationally rather than domestically.

banks
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$64.590
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Lockheed Martin(LMT-N) 

June 5, 2017

Has been very favourably disposed to this area. The stocks in this area are all very expensive. If you look at the geopolitical environment we are in now, the US doesn’t want to be the policeman or watchdog of the world. Feels the wind is at your back in the sector. You want to go with the major players, including Lockheed, Northrop Grumman (NOC-N), Raytheon (RTN-N).

Transportation
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Has been very favourably disposed to this area. The stocks in this area are all very expensive. If you look at the geopolitical environment we are in now, the US doesn’t want to be the policeman or watchdog of the world. Feels the wind is at your back in the sector. You want to go with the major players, including Lockheed, Northrop Grumman (NOC-N), Raytheon (RTN-N).

Transportation
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$280.130
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Walmart Inc(WMT-N) 

June 5, 2017

Has owned this for a long, long time. It is basically in the crosshairs of Amazon (AMZN-Q), but it is a retailer he would prefer over all others. They focus on the lower end of the market, which he feels still has decent growth ahead of it. The company is putting in the effort to fight back on the online side. Their e-commerce sales are doing very, very well. Not a super cheap company. They buy back oodles of stock every year.

department stores
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Has owned this for a long, long time. It is basically in the crosshairs of Amazon (AMZN-Q), but it is a retailer he would prefer over all others. They focus on the lower end of the market, which he feels still has decent growth ahead of it. The company is putting in the effort to fight back on the online side. Their e-commerce sales are doing very, very well. Not a super cheap company. They buy back oodles of stock every year.

department stores
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$80.260
Owned Owned
Yes

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PARTIAL BUY
Shopify Inc.(SHOP-T) 

June 5, 2017

The market cap is around $12 billion. In the grand scheme of things, everyone knows that Amazon (AMZN-Q) is eventually going to buy these guys out. The growth of this thing internationally is fabulous. He would scale into this and not buy into it all at once.

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The market cap is around $12 billion. In the grand scheme of things, everyone knows that Amazon (AMZN-Q) is eventually going to buy these guys out. The growth of this thing internationally is fabulous. He would scale into this and not buy into it all at once.

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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$131.770
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT

Lloyds (LYG-N) or ING (ING-N)? He would favour ING, the Dutch insurer, over Lloyds. In the UK, Lloyds has had a big restructuring coming out of the financial crisis, and clearly that is now behind it. The problem is the political and economic uncertainty background in the UK.

banks
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Lloyds (LYG-N) or ING (ING-N)? He would favour ING, the Dutch insurer, over Lloyds. In the UK, Lloyds has had a big restructuring coming out of the financial crisis, and clearly that is now behind it. The problem is the political and economic uncertainty background in the UK.

banks
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$3.660
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Unknown

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COMMENT
ING Groep NV(ING-N) 

June 5, 2017

Lloyds (LYG-N) or ING (ING-N)? He would favour this over Lloyds. In the UK, Lloyds has had a big restructuring coming out of the financial crisis, and clearly that is now behind it. The problem is the political and economic uncertainty background in the UK. ING is a terrific business and is a very, very inexpensive stock. Thinks interest rates in Europe are set to go up, which should put the wind at the back of this bank.

investment companies/funds
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Lloyds (LYG-N) or ING (ING-N)? He would favour this over Lloyds. In the UK, Lloyds has had a big restructuring coming out of the financial crisis, and clearly that is now behind it. The problem is the political and economic uncertainty background in the UK. ING is a terrific business and is a very, very inexpensive stock. Thinks interest rates in Europe are set to go up, which should put the wind at the back of this bank.

investment companies/funds
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$16.840
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
Albemarle Corp(ALB-N) 

June 5, 2017

(A Top Pick Oct 3/16. Up 35%.) This is firing on all cylinders. The lithium market is a market that is underappreciated, both from the constraint/supply side and the expectations on the demand side. Lithium is very much an Asian story, and probably is why this company has been undervalued for quite some time. Still a Buy.

Mining
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(A Top Pick Oct 3/16. Up 35%.) This is firing on all cylinders. The lithium market is a market that is underappreciated, both from the constraint/supply side and the expectations on the demand side. Lithium is very much an Asian story, and probably is why this company has been undervalued for quite some time. Still a Buy.

Mining
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$113.610
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Foot Locker(FL-N) 

June 5, 2017

(A Top Pick Oct 3/16. Up 14%.) *Short* At the end of the day, all retailers are going to suffer the same fate from the Amazon (AMZN-Q) affect. A cheap stock, but a bit of a value trap. He covered his Short on the earnings disappointment, but would look to re-Short if it bounced materially from here.

clothing stores
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(A Top Pick Oct 3/16. Up 14%.) *Short* At the end of the day, all retailers are going to suffer the same fate from the Amazon (AMZN-Q) affect. A cheap stock, but a bit of a value trap. He covered his Short on the earnings disappointment, but would look to re-Short if it bounced materially from here.

clothing stores
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$57.600
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
SPDR Gold ETF(GLD-N) 

June 5, 2017

(A Top Pick Oct 3/16. Down 3%.) You have to own gold all the time. It’s a form of currency and a proxy to the US$, which he thinks is bottoming out. Has reduced his gold exposure materially, but always has some on.

investment companies/funds
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(A Top Pick Oct 3/16. Down 3%.) You have to own gold all the time. It’s a form of currency and a proxy to the US$, which he thinks is bottoming out. Has reduced his gold exposure materially, but always has some on.

investment companies/funds
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$121.730
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT

Investing in Ireland? This is an iShares ETF for Ireland, which will give you a diversified basket of stocks. The Irish economy is a little like the Canadian economy, a small market, basically financial, building, construction and agriculture. He wouldn’t make this a cornerstone of a portfolio.

E.T.F.'s
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Investing in Ireland? This is an iShares ETF for Ireland, which will give you a diversified basket of stocks. The Irish economy is a little like the Canadian economy, a small market, basically financial, building, construction and agriculture. He wouldn’t make this a cornerstone of a portfolio.

E.T.F.'s
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$44.330
Owned Owned
Unknown

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General Market Comment 

June 5, 2017

US banks versus Canadian and European banks? US banks in general are cheaper, comparing some of the money centred banks like Wells Fargo (WFC-N) and Citi (C-N). On the general outlook, there are some real positive tailwinds, whereas in Canada there are a few headwinds. Also, he would be playing more of the bigger cap money centred type banks, as opposed to regionals. The European side does look good, and there is an ETF iShares MSCI Europe Financial (EUFN-Q) which is a broad composite of European banks. These are banks that have not moved that much. There is a big opportunity in European banks. He would choose banks in the order of 1) European, 2) US and 3) Canada.

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US banks versus Canadian and European banks? US banks in general are cheaper, comparing some of the money centred banks like Wells Fargo (WFC-N) and Citi (C-N). On the general outlook, there are some real positive tailwinds, whereas in Canada there are a few headwinds. Also, he would be playing more of the bigger cap money centred type banks, as opposed to regionals. The European side does look good, and there is an ETF iShares MSCI Europe Financial (EUFN-Q) which is a broad composite of European banks. These are banks that have not moved that much. There is a big opportunity in European banks. He would choose banks in the order of 1) European, 2) US and 3) Canada.

Unknown
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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BUY

One of the finest alternative asset management teams globally. By buying the top company, you are getting investment stakes in all the different subsidiaries. Good management.

management/diversified
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One of the finest alternative asset management teams globally. By buying the top company, you are getting investment stakes in all the different subsidiaries. Good management.

management/diversified
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$51.470
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Deutsche Bank AG(DB-N) 

June 5, 2017

The biggest bank in Germany, so there is no way this would ever be put into receivership. The government would step in. Despite that, it is a very risky bank. They have multiples and multiples of their BV in all kinds of strange things. It’s like J.P. Morgan (JPM-N) on steroids. They are a massive player in the capital markets and the banking markets globally. He would prefer using a broader basket of banks through an ETF like iShares MSCI Europe Financial (EUFN-Q).

banks
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The biggest bank in Germany, so there is no way this would ever be put into receivership. The government would step in. Despite that, it is a very risky bank. They have multiples and multiples of their BV in all kinds of strange things. It’s like J.P. Morgan (JPM-N) on steroids. They are a massive player in the capital markets and the banking markets globally. He would prefer using a broader basket of banks through an ETF like iShares MSCI Europe Financial (EUFN-Q).

banks
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$17.500
Owned Owned
Yes

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