Chris Smith
Managing Director at Gryphon Investment Counsel Inc.
Member since: Mar '06 · 128 Opinions
Rating
Big Win
Win
Neutral
Loss
Big Loss
Stock Opinions by Chris Smith
COMMENT
ABCP settlement has been a big overhang on the stock but looks like it is going to get done. Trading at a very substantial discount on an earnings multiple compared to the other 5 major banks so will play a little bit of catch-up. 7.25% yield should be safe.
banks
COMMENT
There is a view that there has been poorer execution by management with the assets that they have and people have become frustrated.
integrated oils
COMMENT
A direct play on oil sands. Offers better growth than others. Good management.
integrated oils
COMMENT
A levered play on oil giving you a lot of torque. Thinks oil is going higher. If there is any recovery, energy is going to be the one thing that is required.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
At this stage it is basically trading like an option on its survivability. Terrible balance sheet with about $4 billion of debt. Management has not been great.
Broadcasting
BUY
Short term, there is a fair amount of fertilizer floating around as farmers are holding off purchases. Believes fertilizer companies are well positioned for the next couple of years. (See Top Picks.)
integrated mines
TOP PICK
Believes fertilizer companies are well positioned for the next couple of years. Even if its 4X earnings were cut in half, it is still a pretty decent opportunity. Loves the retail aspect of this.
chemicals
COMMENT
Steel distributor, not manufacturing. Very well run company and the balance sheet is in good shape. Will benefit from a volume pickup if the infrastructures spend occurs. Dividend should be sustainable. If you want to play steel, you are better off owning a steel producer.
steel
TOP PICK
Responded quite strongly since November selloff. Still maintain they can grow in 09 vs. 08. A lot of their database services will be in demand as part of the fix on what has been going on. Becoming an oligopoly. Trading at 13 X earnings. 4.5% yield.
publishing
printing
TOP PICK
Diversified in areas that it is exposed to. Very high net backs (basically margins) because of the royalty regime in Saskatchewan. Interesting technology to apply to heavy oil. Also about 75% ownership in Petrominerales (PMG-T), oil producer/free cash flow generator in Colombia and Peru.
oil
gas
COMMENT
Likes that they have been able to raise capital fairly quickly. Dividends are holding the banks at higher valuations.
banks
BUY
He is slightly overweight on banks right now. This one has probably the lowest yield. Tremendously well-run bank. Compelling valuation.
banks
BUY
Good company that is getting to a valuation level that makes no sense. Almost a levered play on the stock market because of the indexed linked products they sold. As the index falls they have not hedged out the risks. As the market falls, their actual risk keeps growing so their capital market falls faster than the market. They need to make a statement that they are not going to raise capital right now. Will be a levered play on the way back up.
insurance
BUY
Not a bad company. Valuation is more attractive than Manulife (MFC-T) at this stage. Trading a little over 1 X book value. Thinks the 6% dividend is safe.
insurance
BUY
Should be largely recession proof in the long-term. 2 nutrients, phosphate and nitrogen have come down dramatically and potash remains high. Got caught in the euphoria of crops and fertilizer prices and overshot to the upside. Very good company but a lot of people bought this for the wrong reasons and are still liquidating. Substantial retail presence in North America.
chemicals
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