Stock Opinions by Chris Smith - Stockchase Experts
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128
Chris Smith @

On Stockchase since : Mar 2006

Managing Director at Gryphon Investment Counsel Inc.

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Stock Opinions by Chris Smith - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
ABCP settlement has been a big overhang on the stock but looks like it is going to get done. Trading at a very substantial discount on an earnings multiple compared to the other 5 major banks so will play a little bit of catch-up. 7.25% yield should be safe.
banks
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ABCP settlement has been a big overhang on the stock but looks like it is going to get done. Trading at a very substantial discount on an earnings multiple compared to the other 5 major banks so will play a little bit of catch-up. 7.25% yield should be safe.
banks
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0 comments
Chris Smith

Managing D, Gryphon Investment C...

Price Price
$34.000
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Petro-Canada(PCA-T) 

January 12, 2009

There is a view that there has been poorer execution by management with the assets that they have and people have become frustrated.
integrated oils
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There is a view that there has been poorer execution by management with the assets that they have and people have become frustrated.
integrated oils
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0 comments
Chris Smith

Managing D, Gryphon Investment C...

Price Price
$29.140
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Suncor Energy Inc(SU-T) 

January 12, 2009

A direct play on oil sands. Offers better growth than others. Good management.
integrated oils
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A direct play on oil sands. Offers better growth than others. Good management.
integrated oils
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Chris Smith

Managing D, Gryphon Investment C...

Price Price
$26.560
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
A levered play on oil giving you a lot of torque. Thinks oil is going higher. If there is any recovery, energy is going to be the one thing that is required.
E.T.F.'s
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A levered play on oil giving you a lot of torque. Thinks oil is going higher. If there is any recovery, energy is going to be the one thing that is required.
E.T.F.'s
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Chris Smith

Managing D, Gryphon Investment C...

Price Price
$9.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
CanWest Global Comm.(CGS-X) 

January 12, 2009

At this stage it is basically trading like an option on its survivability. Terrible balance sheet with about $4 billion of debt. Management has not been great.
Broadcasting
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At this stage it is basically trading like an option on its survivability. Terrible balance sheet with about $4 billion of debt. Management has not been great.
Broadcasting
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Chris Smith

Managing D, Gryphon Investment C...

Price Price
$0.750
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Short term, there is a fair amount of fertilizer floating around as farmers are holding off purchases. Believes fertilizer companies are well positioned for the next couple of years. (See Top Picks.)
integrated mines
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Short term, there is a fair amount of fertilizer floating around as farmers are holding off purchases. Believes fertilizer companies are well positioned for the next couple of years. (See Top Picks.)
integrated mines
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0 comments
Chris Smith

Managing D, Gryphon Investment C...

Price Price
$89.500
Owned Owned
No

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TOP PICK
Agrium(AGU-T) 

January 12, 2009

Believes fertilizer companies are well positioned for the next couple of years. Even if its 4X earnings were cut in half, it is still a pretty decent opportunity. Loves the retail aspect of this.
chemicals
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Believes fertilizer companies are well positioned for the next couple of years. Even if its 4X earnings were cut in half, it is still a pretty decent opportunity. Loves the retail aspect of this.
chemicals
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0 comments
Chris Smith

Managing D, Gryphon Investment C...

Price Price
$38.840
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Russel Metals(RUS-T) 

January 12, 2009

Steel distributor, not manufacturing. Very well run company and the balance sheet is in good shape. Will benefit from a volume pickup if the infrastructures spend occurs. Dividend should be sustainable. If you want to play steel, you are better off owning a steel producer.
steel
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Steel distributor, not manufacturing. Very well run company and the balance sheet is in good shape. Will benefit from a volume pickup if the infrastructures spend occurs. Dividend should be sustainable. If you want to play steel, you are better off owning a steel producer.
steel
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0 comments
Chris Smith

Managing D, Gryphon Investment C...

Price Price
$19.800
Owned Owned
No

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TOP PICK
Thomson Reuters Corp(TRI-T) 

January 12, 2009

Responded quite strongly since November selloff. Still maintain they can grow in 09 vs. 08. A lot of their database services will be in demand as part of the fix on what has been going on. Becoming an oligopoly. Trading at 13 X earnings. 4.5% yield.
publishing/printing
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Responded quite strongly since November selloff. Still maintain they can grow in 09 vs. 08. A lot of their database services will be in demand as part of the fix on what has been going on. Becoming an oligopoly. Trading at 13 X earnings. 4.5% yield.
publishing/printing
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Chris Smith

Managing D, Gryphon Investment C...

Price Price
$29.200
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Diversified in areas that it is exposed to. Very high net backs (basically margins) because of the royalty regime in Saskatchewan. Interesting technology to apply to heavy oil. Also about 75% ownership in Petrominerales (PMG-T), oil producer/free cash flow generator in Colombia and Peru.
oil/gas
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Diversified in areas that it is exposed to. Very high net backs (basically margins) because of the royalty regime in Saskatchewan. Interesting technology to apply to heavy oil. Also about 75% ownership in Petrominerales (PMG-T), oil producer/free cash flow generator in Colombia and Peru.
oil/gas
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Chris Smith

Managing D, Gryphon Investment C...

Price Price
$21.600
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Bank of Nova Scotia(BNS-T) 

January 12, 2009

Likes that they have been able to raise capital fairly quickly. Dividends are holding the banks at higher valuations.
banks
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0 comments
Likes that they have been able to raise capital fairly quickly. Dividends are holding the banks at higher valuations.
banks
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0 comments
Chris Smith

Managing D, Gryphon Investment C...

Price Price
$31.270
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Toronto Dominion(TD-T) 

November 17, 2008

He is slightly overweight on banks right now. This one has probably the lowest yield. Tremendously well-run bank. Compelling valuation.
banks
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He is slightly overweight on banks right now. This one has probably the lowest yield. Tremendously well-run bank. Compelling valuation.
banks
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Chris Smith

Managing D, Gryphon Investment C...

Price Price
$51.750
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Manulife Financial(MFC-T) 

November 17, 2008

Good company that is getting to a valuation level that makes no sense. Almost a levered play on the stock market because of the indexed linked products they sold. As the index falls they have not hedged out the risks. As the market falls, their actual risk keeps growing so their capital market falls faster than the market. They need to make a statement that they are not going to raise capital right now. Will be a levered play on the way back up.
insurance
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Good company that is getting to a valuation level that makes no sense. Almost a levered play on the stock market because of the indexed linked products they sold. As the index falls they have not hedged out the risks. As the market falls, their actual risk keeps growing so their capital market falls faster than the market. They need to make a statement that they are not going to raise capital right now. Will be a levered play on the way back up.
insurance
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Chris Smith

Managing D, Gryphon Investment C...

Price Price
$21.060
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Sun Life Financial Inc(SLF-T) 

November 17, 2008

Not a bad company. Valuation is more attractive than Manulife (MFC-T) at this stage. Trading a little over 1 X book value. Thinks the 6% dividend is safe.
insurance
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Not a bad company. Valuation is more attractive than Manulife (MFC-T) at this stage. Trading a little over 1 X book value. Thinks the 6% dividend is safe.
insurance
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Chris Smith

Managing D, Gryphon Investment C...

Price Price
$23.650
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Agrium(AGU-T) 

November 17, 2008

Should be largely recession proof in the long-term. 2 nutrients, phosphate and nitrogen have come down dramatically and potash remains high. Got caught in the euphoria of crops and fertilizer prices and overshot to the upside. Very good company but a lot of people bought this for the wrong reasons and are still liquidating. Substantial retail presence in North America.
chemicals
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Should be largely recession proof in the long-term. 2 nutrients, phosphate and nitrogen have come down dramatically and potash remains high. Got caught in the euphoria of crops and fertilizer prices and overshot to the upside. Very good company but a lot of people bought this for the wrong reasons and are still liquidating. Substantial retail presence in North America.
chemicals
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Chris Smith

Managing D, Gryphon Investment C...

Price Price
$38.100
Owned Owned
Yes

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