Apple Inc (AAPL)

(Top Pick July 6/11, Down 3.14%) Looking at their earnings thinks their next two quarters will be good. iPhone is a very high margin product, most of their profits come from the iPhone and now they are going to sell it in China. Really good value play and a buy under $600. Thinks they should just go out and buy something at this point.

We all know the story. Hit $700 in Mid Sept and then a 20% correction. What is happening is that people are starting to question whether there is innovation left in the company. Financially, all companies are priced at figure cash flows discounted back. People are questioning whether the future cash flows will be declining. He thinks the market has over discounted future cash flows.

(Top Pick Nov 28/11, Up 50.16%) Perfect storm between the round number of $700, then those that wait for 5% down, then 10% and then there was the ‘I told you so’ crowd. It looks like it settled out here. China Unicom said they are bringing the iPhone 5 into town.

Bought it just as it was testing the 200 day average and was stopped out. You never know exactly where the bottom is going to be. They are going to run into margin pressures in the next couple of years. Thinks there is a bounce coming with the markets.

Never average down. Technical analysts only average up. Don’t buy any more. Just let it ride. A lot of people were buying up to 2012. There is talk of profit taking because of possible pending tax hikes in the US. It had a gap up today but volume was not as high today as last trading day. We are below the 200 day moving average and that indicates a trend reversal. One day does not make a rally or a reversal. He would watch this very carefully.

Looking at the very long term chart of Apple, there is a monstrous uptrend. It is still in an uptrend. It has only come down to a lower part of the price channel. It has swung from too far above to too far below the 50 day moving average. That reversal today was interesting. It is more impressive it is on a weekly chart.

He is short Apple in some portfolios. The issue is that every portfolio manager owns this stock. It has been performing poorly and there may be changes in taxes, less innovation.

Drop off is investors protecting their profits. They could not make their products fast enough. Some people may be taking profits to trigger gains in case US capital gains taxes go up. This company is not going away. It is not another RIM. Thinks they will get better margins than they are talking about.

Has been selling his holdings in the last 6 months or so, as he is getting a little bit concerned about the growth rate.

A bit surprised at the strength of the selloff but not much different than what it was earlier this year. As you head into the next few quarters, there will be an additional carrier that will be picking up the iPhone, which is definitely a plus for them. Feels that bringing out the mini was the right thing to do. $121 billion in cash. Trading at 11X earnings and he still sees a 20% growth rate. He could see it perhaps falling down to its next support level at around $550 or so.

Analysts are all still in love with this. It’s the investors who are looking at it somewhat differently. There are finally some first cracks in the company. Technically the stock looks vulnerable here. There is probably some more downside in it.

Took out a quarter of his position earlier. When you change management (Steve Jobs left) you get a bit of a break but it kicks in when you get your first missed quarter. But right now he thinks they have enough earnings momentum to keep the company going for a couple of years. Bought again yesterday after 15% pullback.

Has pulled back and has a little bit of weakness, but hasn’t broken the 200 day moving average. What you want to see before you start to worry is if it pulls back into the $525 area. Technically, it is at the 200 day moving average and if it pulled back down below, there may be further weakness. Will probably do okay over the next little while. He would be concerned once it gets past January, which is when the technical stocks tend to weaken up.

Ultimately this is a gadget maker but the best. Great products but all of these products are coming to a maturity in their life. Thinks that mediocrity creeps in.

Bull Put Spread. Sell Feb 600 Puts @ $44 and Buy Feb 550 Puts @ $22.20