
NASDAQ:AAPL
Although he owns this, at this point he has 2 major issues. One is capital allocation policy. They have $137 billion and they have to figure out what to do with it. Secondly, they have to overcome this wave of pessimism that is sweeping over the company. This is sort of rooted in the idea that innovation died with Steve Jobs. The market is looking for a new innovative product such as a phone, iPad, TV, etc.
(A Top Pick March 2/12. Down 15.62%.) Has clearly changed from a momentum stock, even though the valuation never approached dangerous levels. Feels a little bit of momentum is coming back. Earnings growth has flattened out in the last couple of quarters but doesn’t think it’s going to stay that way forever. Trading at only 10X earnings. Could see it moving into the mid-to high $500’s this year.
Has just started purchasing this. At these levels, the cash flow yield is over 10%. PE multiple is below 10 times. A third of its market cap is in cash. Generates about $20 billion in cash each quarter. He knows that at these levels there is a catalyst in place to have to return cash to shareholders. It could be through a much larger dividend or a very large buyback.
Sometimes stocks become so over owned that when technically they start to sell off, they become a source of funds for other types of investments. Samsung seems to really be attacking this company. Innovations have been less than exciting. To compete they are going to have to either innovate, which will impact their margins, or will have to compete on price, which will also impact their margins. (He is Short this stock.)
It should hold at the current level. If it breaks down through $430, it’ll probably go down a bit further, high $380’s-$390’s. If you believe in this on a long-term fundamental basis, it will have a lot of grinding through those places where people paid much more and are trying to get their money back. There are better stocks in this space.
As a value investor, he thinks this is going to make something over $40 this year. It has $150 a share in cash. Take off the cash and you are getting $40 of earnings for $300, which is 7X earnings for one of the great companies in the history of the world. He is assuming a major share buyback will be announced at the annual meeting as well as an increased dividend. Yield of 2.3%.
Has been surprised at the magnitude of the drop in price. This was a positive high momentum company on the upside and has flipped around to a negative momentum. Fundamentally, not a lot has changed. By the end of their fiscal year, he thinks they will have about $175 a share in cash. Trading at about 5.5X ex-cash. Extremely cheap but right now the market is not carrying about fundamentals.
No one can argue about the value in the company. There is $140 billion in cash and it is paying a dividend. Its products are not going away. There is lack of enthusiasm right now so this is probably the time to be loading up on the stock. This is at the height of maximum pessimism.