Apple Inc (AAPL)

Historically people want to buy this right around the end of the year, and this is because people want to buy Apple products at around Christmas. Technically, over the last 8 months or so, it has been in a trading range and there is no real strong technical reason to become involved yet. You may want to wait until closer to October when seasonality clicks in.

(A Top Pick July 24/14. Up 25.91%.) This is getting caught up in what is going on in the market. There are very clearly rising moving averages. Stock has been basically trading in a range of $120-$134. Earnings are coming up and we are going to get a clearer picture there. Technically this is not broken at all.

Not an expensive stock, cash flow almost 10%, dividends are around 1.6. Iphone is generating a lot of their revenue. A lot harder to innovate in the future, compared to the ipad, and iphone. Doesn't think the watch is going to happen at all.

A perfect picture of a quantitative stock. It scores really well on price momentum, valuation and in the top 2% of the S&P 500 on value. Trading at 8X EBITDA and 15X PE. This is a company with 38% ROE, and yet trades at a lower multiple than the broad market. One of the best balance sheets you could possibly find. They have a lot of options in buying back stocks.

The big growth spurt was from 2006 to 2009, followed by a growth spurt in 2009-2011 and another one from 2013-2015. That is 3 growth spurts and this stock is in the 3^rd phase. A lot of money was made in the 1^st spurt, but not as much in the 2^nd and even less in the 3^rd. He thinks growth in this company is going to slow down. Most of the easy money has been made. He wouldn’t get too excited about this.

He does not think the Apple watch is the be all and end all. The last iPhone release was successful. He thinks Apple music will make incremental revenue. 11 times earnings.

The valuation on this is still very, very solid. Trading on a 13 X forward PE multiple with a 15% long-term growth rate. That puts it at a PEG ratio of 1.0%. Balance sheet is unbeatable with $94 billion in cash. That allowed them to do a $140 billion share buyback. Yield of 1.63%.

It is important to separate the outlook for the stock versus the company. They both have challenges. At the company level, it is no longer a fast growth company. The key areas where it makes its profits are pretty mature. It is hoping to develop new revenue lines through music streams, watches, etc. As the stock goes through the transition of being a very high growth company, to being a lower growth company, to being an average growth company you are going to get a rotation in their shareholder base. It is tough to see how the stock will do well over a sustained period of time.

(A Top Pick July 3/14. Up 36.87%.) His model price is $161.03, a 27% upside. $138 is a real barrier for them.

We are always encouraged by our stocks doing well, but the important thing is the underlying company and is it moving at the same rate of growth as the stock price. If it is, then we know that the metrics are basically staying the same or getting less expensive. This is a victim of its own success. The iPhone has been tremendously successful and is their high margin product. He would like to see a bigger pie and thinks we are seeing that as they are expanding their product base.

It is hard to argue with this company. The only negative is the law of large numbers. The question is, can they continue to grow given that they are such a massive company and generates such huge amounts of cash flow and earnings. Not that expensive a stock, and if you back out the cash, it is probably trading at 11 or 12 times earnings.

If you take away the exciting package, the shine and the glitter, this company has been operating on all fronts. The smart phone market in North America is saturated, and they are trying to grow in emerging markets. Globally 24% of the world uses smart phones today, so there is still lots of adoption that can take place. They continue to innovate and the new innovations are gaining traction. Dividend yield of 1.61%.

His single biggest position. They are in a product cycle upgrade. Incremental sales in iPhones are from other manufacture’s customers. He loves his iWatch. It is an inexpensive company. 39% return on equity. Their services business is the most profitable part of their business, such as iTunes or the monthly subscription to iCloud.

This has been enormously successful. The difficulty now is that it is the biggest company in the world by market cap and the actual rate of growth is slowing. If you have some profits, you might want to take some.

Has a model price of $162.95, a 25% upside. A year from now, he has a model price calculation at $175. He likes this company and would try to get it on a pullback.