
NASDAQ:AAPL
He believes this still has legs. Tim Cook has done an excellent job at being able to manage this company as it goes through its maturity stage. The initiation of a dividend is proof of the metamorphosis that is taking place. He wouldn’t buy this for its dividend, but for its growing dividend. The cash flow they generate is strong, to maintain an increasing dividend over time. Trading at about 13X PE, which is very reasonable in this environment.
Definitely overbought. If you draw a 200 day moving average on the chart, and if it is more than 10% over the 200 day moving average, it is probably time for a pullback. However, this is all within the healthy uptrend. A rule of thumb is to watch the 200 day moving average, and if something arcs too high (10%) off that, it might be due for a pullback. After the pullback, that might be a good time to enter the stock.
There is more clarity than there was 2-5 years ago, when it was thought that they had to reprove themselves on innovations. They now have new products coming such as the new watch and Apple Pay. He thinks there is still a lot of growth and a long runway. Have become much more shareholder friendly. No company globally produces the amount of free cash like this company. His guess is that the 1.44% yield will probably close to double in April.
He would separate the company from the stock. A lot of people love their products and use their products and are a very strong fan base. They dominate profitability and the smart phone industry despite that their market share is only around a 5th globally. He would argue the reason this has been so successful in the last 10 years, is because somewhat uniquely among large cap tech companies, Steve Jobs had the ability to bring together the engineering department, product management department, sales/marketing department, and get them to bash their heads together. This got compelling products out really, really quickly and only focused on products that made a difference. With his passing, his fear is that this company looks a lot like most other large tech companies, where there are all sorts of good ideas percolating, but the real challenge is to get those ideas to market very, very quickly. If he owned, he would be very tempted to take a profit.
Write Covered Calls? You could, although he has never thought of doing it. You would be getting some pretty nice premiums. This is a conservative way of playing it. Don’t forget that whenever you are doing a Covered Call, you are effectively reducing the price of the stock by the value of the Call. Just make sure you know what you are doing because Covered Calls are not difficult to put on, but they get really interesting when there is volatility and you want to take them off. Where a stock price is $100, he looks for an ETF where the Strike price is $100 or $105. Some people will say that you should only go out 1 month or 2 because you will get better yield, because you can do it 2 or 3 times over 6 months. He prefers going out 6 months as he likes more downside protection. It also depends on ex-dividend dates.
There has never been enough value for him to buy it, but if you own it, there’s no reason to sell it. The watch is the first non-Steve Jobs product.