Apple Inc (AAPL)

Wouldn’t own this stock. He has clients that own it, and they are going to start selling it. The signs are in that the company has finally hit the end of the road. Their problem is that their products are very expensive relative to their competitors, so profit margins are very high. The P/E ratio is not very high. The only way the stock is going to continue to go up is 1) to convince you to buy a new iPhone every 2 years or 2) invent a new device. Early signs are that the Apple watch is not moving the needle.

Trading at only 10X earnings, but if you take out the cash, it is probably only 8X earnings. They are increasing their dividends. 63% of their revenue comes from the iPhone. In the last quarter everything fell. IPhone7 is coming out which he thinks will offer added products. Dividend yield of 2.45%.

People either love it or really dislike it. He continues to like it. In the last 15 years, this stock has been halved 3 times. It’s not like it is different this time, but you always have to look into the future. This company, over time, is growing well. The latest quarter, which was an off cycle quarter, didn’t grow so well. While everybody wants to fit the equation of quarter to quarter, the product cycle of this company doesn’t work quarter to quarter. Had a fantastic introduction of the S model iPhone, where units grew 40%-45%, followed by the off cycle. Putting the 2 together you had a pretty good progression.

Great balance sheet. Great products. Great services. Trading at 11X next year’s earnings. If this is overpriced, yielding 2.5% (more than the US Treasury bond), then the whole market is overpriced. A very dynamic company that has lots of products and services. Thinks it is going to continue to innovate and that there will continue to be growth in emerging markets.

It is a ‘yesterday’ stock. He does not see what is going to make this stock go up a lot. The handset business has been shown to be a graveyard business for a lot of other companies.

Reported disappointing earnings. Carl Icahn sold all his shares yesterday, so the stock came down pretty hard this week. At $94, it is just a little over 10X next year’s earnings. Still a dominant product in the smart phone area. There are concerns about lack of innovation and lack of growth in China. They’re being valued cheaply, but still generates tons of cash. Buying it here your risk is limited. Should they come out with that next big thing, it could be significantly higher. In the interim, you have a strong Eco system in the service side of the business, which was up 20% last year. The iPhone 7 is also coming out later in the year.

He rarely buys a stock over $10. Thinks Apple are making huge errors. They are taking on debt, and why with the amount of money they have in the bank? Also, buying back stock doesn’t make sense to him. This is technology, which can be very, very good, but can have problems for companies when they are very technology-based. It could certainly go higher, but at some point often, technology is not the leader in the field anymore, and then the stock price gets killed.

(A Top Pick April 21/15. Down 14.2%.) Was stopped out, and doesn’t own this currently.

There were reports last week of slowing iPhone production. It is probably a trading stock now. The uptrend has ended. Until it breaks out, he would look at trading it. The bigger trend is not all that positive right now.

He was pounding the table at $85. He thinks their earnings will be good and they will buy back a tone of stock. Expect a dividend increase. $160 model price. A good value name to hold in your portfolio.

The next product cycle will be starting in September. Until then, you are facing really tough comparable sales numbers, and he wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock consolidate a little. He likes tech, this company, management and the product line up. You don’t need to jump the gun on this one.

The dividend is projected to be 2% this year. He thinks it will go up this year. He has held this for a long time even though he is not a buy and hold guy. It is reaching a resistance level. He is looking for an opportunity to take profits.

He likes this. When it gets up, he trims his position, and then buys back when it drops in price. This has a low PE and they have tons of cash. Feels that in September they are going to have a new release of an iPhone which, after 2 years, will have a good refresh cycle. If this sold off, he would be a buyer.

Analysts are looking at $120-$150 as targets. He would lighten up on market strength here.

Still one of the great stocks out there. A device company, but if it was the only device company going forward, then there would be a lot to worry about. They are building such a strong ecosystem of IOS software to become independent, and that is the future of this company. If you take out the cash, it is trading at about 9X earnings, making it exceptionally cheap for one of the greatest growth companies over the past few decades.