Uber (UBER)

A story of growing cashflow, which will continue to grow. Mixed analyst estimates for next year. Long-run story is intact. Stock's behaving very well. But in general, his firm is reducing exposure to the consumer.

Technically, doing fine. Stock's moving higher, as is the 200-day MA. He worries about competition down the road, in particular autonomous vehicles such as Waymo. Diversified. Earnings growth for next few years somewhat muted. Trades at 30x PE, and it might get back to 15% growth, so the PEG is 2 (not exciting).

See his Top Picks.

The knock is that self-driving cars are going to be everywhere, and you don't need an intermediary service like this one. But they're doing not only mobility, but also delivery and freight. Good partnership announcements to get into robotaxis. Share buybacks.

Not expensive at 21x, growing visibly at 37%. Lots more to go.

Chart shows fairly clear upward move. True leader in its nascent industry, has quickly become a very big part of our society. Stock's down today on news that LYFT has done a deal with Waymo for autonomous vehicles in Nashville. One-day news is just noise.

See his firm's blog under Insights at goodreid.com.

Financial metrics on mobility, delivery, and even on freight come in around mid-60s on that rule of 40. 12-month price target of $112. No dividend.

New CEO in 2017 vowed to increase profitability, and it's materialized in operating margins, earnings, and cashflow. Thinks that will continue. Rapidly getting into self-driving, which apparently will dominate the space over the next number of years. Stock has a long way to go over next 5 years.

Let it go after Q4 results. Concerned that it was reaching saturation in major urban markets. Talked about aggressively pursuing suburban market share, which is harder to serve and likely not as profitable. Slowing growth YOY. Major question marks about fledgling freight business.

He bought more because he didn't hold a large enough position. He expects it to reach $100. He may add even more.

Was in it before and has been waiting to re-enter. He just took a 1% position. Expects it to break $100 soon. Waymo is a plus.

Waymo's self-driving is here and will see hockey stick-shaped growth.

They're now a cash flow machine. The shares are at an all-time high, but cash flow, earnings and revenues are growing faster than the share price. So, it's getting less expensive in terms of valuation.

Up 43% this year. A new deal will double rides in Abu Dabai. Expects revenues +16% and EPS +32%.

We continue to like UBER. It's a large name, with a decent valuation of 22.6X forward earnings, forward growth epectations are decent, and analyst estimates continue to climb higher. We like its operating leverage, and it's now profitable with good free cash flow. 

In a hypothetical scenario, where we had a US model portfolio, we could see it being in either the Balanced or Growth model portfolio, with a slight tilt towards the Balanced model portfolio.
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Will be a permanent compounder. They had a good quarter. The buyback will happen.

One of the themes that will come out of today's show is that he's looking for companies that have strong and growing cashflow. This name has gone from negative cashflow to positive. Classic company for this environment, with the ability to change prices tomorrow if costs go up today.

Fits his requirements of not having a ton of debt, having pricing power, strong market position. Technically, nice consolidation over the last year and has broken out. Now a nice pullback to a really good entry point. Large-cap growth still an important engine in this market.