Shane Obata Uber UBER-N WATCH May 29, 2025

Tariffs have taken a bit of a back seat, so now focus is returning again to robotics and robotaxis. Only 3 are in that race -- UBER, Waymo, and TSLA. He particularly likes Waymo, and then TSLA. 12-month price target is $115.

The fundamentals are excellent. It will break $100 and will be up for many years.

Is very mispriced. The market feels that if Tesla succeeds in self-driving cars, it will put Uber out of business. No, won't happen. Nearly 20% of Uber's fleeting is autonomous now. Uber is outgrowing their valuation (the PE is dropping). They recently joined the S&P. They have a fantastic future.

One of the themes that will come out of today's show is that he's looking for companies that have strong and growing cashflow. This name has gone from negative cashflow to positive. Classic company for this environment, with the ability to change prices tomorrow if costs go up today.

Fits his requirements of not having a ton of debt, having pricing power, strong market position. Technically, nice consolidation over the last year and has broken out. Now a nice pullback to a really good entry point. Large-cap growth still an important engine in this market.

Will be a permanent compounder. They had a good quarter. The buyback will happen.

We continue to like UBER. It's a large name, with a decent valuation of 22.6X forward earnings, forward growth epectations are decent, and analyst estimates continue to climb higher. We like its operating leverage, and it's now profitable with good free cash flow. 

In a hypothetical scenario, where we had a US model portfolio, we could see it being in either the Balanced or Growth model portfolio, with a slight tilt towards the Balanced model portfolio.
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Up 43% this year. A new deal will double rides in Abu Dabai. Expects revenues +16% and EPS +32%.

They're now a cash flow machine. The shares are at an all-time high, but cash flow, earnings and revenues are growing faster than the share price. So, it's getting less expensive in terms of valuation.

Let it go after Q4 results. Concerned that it was reaching saturation in major urban markets. Talked about aggressively pursuing suburban market share, which is harder to serve and likely not as profitable. Slowing growth YOY. Major question marks about fledgling freight business.