Opinions
Richard Fogler
Uber
UBER-N
BUY
Sep 05, 2025
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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One of the themes that will come out of today's show is that he's looking for companies that have strong and growing cashflow. This name has gone from negative cashflow to positive. Classic company for this environment, with the ability to change prices tomorrow if costs go up today.
Fits his requirements of not having a ton of debt, having pricing power, strong market position. Technically, nice consolidation over the last year and has broken out. Now a nice pullback to a really good entry point. Large-cap growth still an important engine in this market.
We continue to like UBER. It's a large name, with a decent valuation of 22.6X forward earnings, forward growth epectations are decent, and analyst estimates continue to climb higher. We like its operating leverage, and it's now profitable with good free cash flow.
In a hypothetical scenario, where we had a US model portfolio, we could see it being in either the Balanced or Growth model portfolio, with a slight tilt towards the Balanced model portfolio.
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Let it go after Q4 results. Concerned that it was reaching saturation in major urban markets. Talked about aggressively pursuing suburban market share, which is harder to serve and likely not as profitable. Slowing growth YOY. Major question marks about fledgling freight business.
New CEO in 2017 vowed to increase profitability, and it's materialized in operating margins, earnings, and cashflow. Thinks that will continue. Rapidly getting into self-driving, which apparently will dominate the space over the next number of years. Stock has a long way to go over next 5 years.