Peter BriegerTransat AT Inc.TRZ.TOTOP PICKNov 16, 2004

Air traffic is a growing business, and this company services the smaller end of the market. A dangerous business, as it requires a lot of capital and can be hit by black-swan events like the pandemic. Low-quality play. Speculative.

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It's currently in the midst of a potential merger with Air Canada. COVID has also decreased air travel significantly. Current cash positions will help the company weather the crisis. However, they will probably burn through their cash by the end of this year. There is also competition from private companies who can undersell them by up to 40%.

Rumours that the Air Canada deal will fall apart and someone will take Transat private The whole airline sector is facing difficulty now. Air Canada's takeover offer likely won't offer given the pandemic. Transat's revenues are down nearly 98% last quarter and begging Ottawa for help. A private take-out is possible; who knows? Airlines are uninvestible now.

He loves it because their prices are really good. As an investment he has shied away from it. It is a tough business. They admit that they have to diversify now. He thinks the recent acquisition is extremely risky.

This is his top play in the airline sector. He prefers this to Air Canada because AC has moved up so much. Air Transat has also moved up a lot but still has upside.

He has looked at it a number of times. You jump on it and the stock rolls over. The industry can be quite cyclical. Management is working through issues and building capacity as well as working on properties down south. He wants to see them work through the execution and see what it looks like then. It has pulled back on energy fears because of jet fuel and so he thinks this is a good time to load up on it, but he prefers AC-T.

(A Top Pick April 26/16. Up 27%.) *SHORT* (Pairs trade with a Long on Air Canada (AC-T). This Pairs trade is driven more by the Short side than the Long side. This company has always had razor thin margins, and if the wind blows in the wrong direction they tend to have a loss. He would continue with this position.

He likes it as a consumer, but as an investment it is probably worse than liquor stores (LIQ-T): low margins and competitive. There are players that are wobbling. It is a tough business.

Transportation stocks, airlines in particular, tend to do well September all the way through to the holiday season, about the November timeframe. They generally peak at the US Thanksgiving. We are currently in a period of seasonal weakness, and this one is showing that quite prominently right now. Chart shows a decline starting in April. If it can hold the $6.40 level, that would be an ideal point to enter for the seasonal play. If we break that, there is a bit of a descending triangle that suggest we could see a $.75 drop below the $6.40 level. You should have your stop level at that point, because losses could be substantial.

*SHORT* (Pairs trade with a Long on Air Canada (AC-T). This has razor thin margins, so any little hiccup can throw them into losses. Last quarter there was warm weather, the currency, a threat of pilot strikes, Zika mosquitoes. Had very ugly Q1 numbers. Management indicated Q2 was going to be ugly as well. Everyone is putting capacity on this summer for Europe, which he doesn’t think will bode well for them. To hedged this out, he has a Long on Air Canada.

She generally doesn’t buy the airline space, because it is so cyclical. This one is difficult, because it is not an national carrier, but an international carrier. It is caught with the other airlines increasing capacity and also moving into international routes. She would probably take the money out as the sector is so cyclical.

It has been in the group of non-performers. So far it is tempting, but there is quite a bit of overhead resistance. If it breaks this, then you have some upside potential. Don’t get excited until you get a break out.

(Top Pick Dec 19/14, Down 12.66%) The fall in the Canadian dollar impacted them as travel to the islands dropped. In the fourth quarter they had their best quarter in years. Because of net cash in the company you are paying almost nothing for the operations.