Opinions
Bruce Murray
Transat AT Inc.
TRZ-T
RISKY
Jan 16, 2025
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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(A Top Pick April 26/16. Up 27%.) *SHORT* (Pairs trade with a Long on Air Canada (AC-T). This Pairs trade is driven more by the Short side than the Long side. This company has always had razor thin margins, and if the wind blows in the wrong direction they tend to have a loss. He would continue with this position.
He has looked at it a number of times. You jump on it and the stock rolls over. The industry can be quite cyclical. Management is working through issues and building capacity as well as working on properties down south. He wants to see them work through the execution and see what it looks like then. It has pulled back on energy fears because of jet fuel and so he thinks this is a good time to load up on it, but he prefers AC-T.
Rumours that the Air Canada deal will fall apart and someone will take Transat private The whole airline sector is facing difficulty now. Air Canada's takeover offer likely won't offer given the pandemic. Transat's revenues are down nearly 98% last quarter and begging Ottawa for help. A private take-out is possible; who knows? Airlines are uninvestible now.
It's currently in the midst of a potential merger with Air Canada. COVID has also decreased air travel significantly. Current cash positions will help the company weather the crisis. However, they will probably burn through their cash by the end of this year. There is also competition from private companies who can undersell them by up to 40%.
Air traffic is a growing business, and this company services the smaller end of the market. A dangerous business, as it requires a lot of capital and can be hit by black-swan events like the pandemic. Low-quality play. Speculative.
See his Top Picks.