TFI International Inc (TFII.TO)

TFII had two price target cuts on Tuesday. CIBC's analyst suggested that this was to reflect, "mid-quarter updates provided by a number of US LTL companies, which pointed to a weaker-than-expected August." It seems that there are some near term headwinds related to softer volumes. The business is sensitive to the macroeconomy and can also be cyclical. We still view TFII very positively but would keep a close eye on upcoming quarterly results. 
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Has been watching business for a long term. Not a capital light business. Long term, company has been good at increasing shareholder wealth. Worth investigating for interested investors. Doesn't own shares at this time, but could be a good investment. 

Likes the company, not trucking. Smart managers who have been good operators, and smart capital allocators. But trucking is in a tough space now with lower rates. A long-term compounder that gains more and more market share.

Up 17% YTD, so not much of a pullback. On a YTD basis, outperforming the railroads. He likes both those businesses. Canada has good geography for trucking and infrastructure. TFII is a great acquirer and integrator of other companies. Rumours that UPS wants to unload less-than-truckload; perhaps TFII could bid for it. Balance sheet in great shape, more acquisitions to come.

CNR is the laggard. CP is doing nicely. He still regrets not switching from CNR to CP.

Recent weakness in business has been fixed. Free cash flow is starting to rise. Expecting earnings to rise. M&A should pickup again. Balance sheet is in good shape. Expecting share price to rise from here. 

We continue to like the stock a lot, but following recent earnings it may not have a short term catalyst for a bounce. We would be comfortable selling/rebuying, especially considering capital gains tax changes next month. 
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Good move to trim, as it got ahead of itself on moving averages and such. Don't sell any more. Great stock. Poor reaction to earnings, but US light trucking showing signs of meaningful improvement. FCF remains strong, pretty good 2024 guidance. Sees EPS rebound in second half. Spinout coming. Trades at 15x, growing at 21%.

It did very well during Covid, but post-Covid logistics companies are giving back ground. It will be bumpy, but you will be fine with this long term.

Diverse customer base. US market represents about 70% of revenue. Profitability above stock market average, and has been for 5-6 years. Balance sheet has more leverage than what he's comfortable with. 20x PE, considerably more expensive than TSX at 16x. Wait for a considerable drop to $170-175. Yield is only 1%.

Economy continues to be resilient. Leading indicators have turned positive, after being negative for 18 months. PMI data turned back north of 50. IYT is the transport ETF, behaving well. Recently made new highs after consolidating. Great company, in a sector he'd like to own.

Has run up, but he's not selling. More to go. 6% of your portfolio is OK. Lots of catalysts. M&A in a fragmented space. Unlocking value by spinning off truckload business. Good earnings in a tough economy. Market's expecting 21% EPS growth. Trades at 21x. 

Are excellent buyers of companies and synergizing them, and just bought one recently. The only question is their valuation. There's some downside here, and the stock will ebb and flow with the economy. Overall, a very good stock.

Like the CSU of trucking, with 90 acquisitions over 10 years. Bad year for trucking last year. Beautiful balance sheet, lots of free cashflow. Once recent acquisition gets rolled in, a home run. Contemplating splitting into two, as less-than-truckload and courier get higher valuations. Needs to be recovery in freight revenue for stock to go higher, but that will happen. Yield of 1.2%.

Cut loose earlier this year, amidst a difficult growth environment. Almost-impossible comparison to last year's profits from supply-chain shortages. 2023 US manufacturing recession led to a freight recession. Valuation is sub-16x earnings, in line with 10-year average. Quality compounder, consolidator in the industry. Compounded total shareholder return of 23% over the last decade. Comfortable buying here. Expects good 2024 earnings.

Does not invest in company currently. Founder led and owned. Returns on invested capital are high. Little bit of debt which is a concern. Trucking is not asset light (prefers asset light business models). Would rate business 7/10 in terms of overall quality.