Brian MaddenTFI International IncTFII.TOTOP PICKOct 30, 2024

We've been in a freight recession, but at the first signs of this recession ending, this stock has catapulted back to previous levels. However, the fundamentals haven't recovered, just the excitement that things are getting better. Momentum kicks in, driven by algorithms and retail investors.

(Note the short timeframe.)  Organic improvements plus coming out of freight recession. He just sold his position to deploy proceeds elsewhere. (Industry's still improving, so perhaps he sold too early.)

Still off all-time highs, but recovering nicely. Added more in the past year. US manufacturing finally turned the corner last month. Dynamic earnings for next 2-3 years. Shares not fully valued, and buybacks are ongoing instead of M&A.

Prefers truckers to rails right now. Got decimated on this name, but it's recovered ~30% in last few months. Trucking spot pricing has improved. US manufacturing data came out today and it was good. He's feeling really good about the US economy. 

Really nice-looking chart. Definitely broke out of its base and has kept on going. Really constructive that it broke out of $140 and then $150 and held each time.

M&A model. They buy something, fix their balance sheet over time, and then do it again. Cyclical.

#1 would probably be Telus. BCE is also in there. Names like AC, MFI, PRL, GSY, WFG, and TFII. All of these stocks are cheaper than they ought to be. All things being equal, those names should be higher in January than they are now.

No secret that we're in one of the longest freight recessions in history. Plus, an additional hit from tariffs. Just look at that chart. Attractive on valuation. Too cyclical and risky for her firm. But if you have a strong risk appetite, this could be your opportunity.

Instead, there might be an opportunity in the rails. Higher barriers to entry than for trucking.

Trucking and transportation are struggling right now. Tariffs have caused volumes to fall. If you think that tariffs will recede at some point, or a deal gets done between Canada and the US, then this could be a wonderful opportunity. It depends how it fits in your portfolio.

Right now facing headwinds, so investors are selling off. Plus it's tax-loss selling season.

Should trade at much lower multiples than it has historically. Cult-like following. Reputation of management is somewhat overblown. Better places to put money.

Knows this well. It's managed well. Tariffs hit them. Managers can fix this. He'd buy it here, but it will be depressed for a while.

The entire trucking sector faces a freight recession--falling rates and too many truckers working post-2022. Demand is weak as consumer spending in the US is weak. In the meantime, TFII bought UPS Freight and are struggling to improving that cost structure. Management has been great buying and integrating companies, and generating free cash flow. TFII is reducing costs to build that cash flow which they use to buy back shares or buy companies.

His team eliminated all stocks related to tariffs. Freight rates and volumes have come down. There's a sense that no one really knows what the next leg of this trade war's going to be. Even down here, he wouldn't think about buying until there's some real clarity on that.

All of the trucking companies are really suffering. Too many truckers brought on board, while shipment volumes went down. Seeing a base case on this name, which is a positive overall. He foresees sideways moves at this point. Seasonally, sector starts to pick up now. If you're going to be patient with it, could pick some up here.

Timing was not great on this one. Still one of the best trucking companies in NA. Indigestion integrating less-than-truckload acquisition; shook up that management, and that bodes well. Whole sector is facing overcapacity, pressuring rates. Long-term potential and compounding will return.