Barry Schwartz TFI International Inc TFII-T WATCH Oct 24, 2024

If we're going into a slowdown, this name is expensive. Balance sheet is OK. FMV is ~$147. Immediate downside target of $100 or so. Don't be in too much of a hurry to get in. A lot of other stocks have more upside potential. 

Added recently on the selloff. Trading at 15x 2025 earnings, so it's cheap. Fundamentals score 10/10. A contrarian value play, about 40% upside from here.

Best of breed. HQ remains in Canada, hearing message loud and clear from shareholders. Tremendous compounder, great serial acquirer. Purchase of UPS less-than-truckload still trying to be integrated to their standard. A good business, buy on sale.

They had an ugly last quarter (shares tanked) in a surprising miss. They tend to have good quarters. They make well-time acquisitions in troubled times, so wait for that to happen again to boost shares. This stock won't do much for the next 6 months.

We would not see a rush, but we would be OK buying a partial position (1/5th or so) into any further weakness. It may take a while for things to recover. We think over three years it will be higher, but the short term outlook is much harder to call. 
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Did really well for 10-12 years or more. Earnings have fallen from the $8-10 range to $5. Analysts still have great faith in it. Great management. Looking to spin off less-than-truckload. Affected by turmoil in China. Short-term dislocation is huge. Fine to buy and hold.

Last 2 quarters have not been good. EPS is the worst it's been since 2021. Tariff uncertainty, and company's saying it's not doing any M&A this year (but that's one of its embedded catalysts for growth). Earnings down 17-30% for 2025. FCF was up 40%. Management's seeing some accretion from recent acquisition.

All this negative news was said yesterday, and the stock had a great rally. Often a sign that sellers are washed out. But for that thesis to be correct, we need to avoid a darker economic outcome. Very cyclical. Sees 20% growth in 2026-2028, assuming there's a rebound. 

Cheap enough at 11x 2026. On days like today, yes, he'd sell puts with a $90-95 or so strike. Know that growth stocks can go down a lot in dark economic times. This stock is going to go back to former highs and beat them, and you want to be there for that.

They operate in the US and Canada, but don't ship a lot across the border. But it's projected that there will be 60% fewer Chinese goods reaching the LA port in a few weeks, so this will be a real lull in shipping. If you can wait for a possible long period of slower shipping, this is not a bad place to invest. But this could be a bit of a wait. He is holding his shares.

This is a speculative buy. There has been a freight recession in place since last year due to an over-supply of freight and storage trucks during the pandemic.

He was looking for a turn in the trucking cycle, and the stock was already off from highs. But it hasn't turned around. Then came tariffs. Kitchen-sink quarters. Very cyclical name. Still, this is a "when" thesis, not an "if" thesis. Trades ~10x PE for 2027, growing around 33%. Great compounder, always M&A upside. Very skilled management, long-term win.