TFI International Inc (TFII.TO)

Should trade at much lower multiples than it has historically. Cult-like following. Reputation of management is somewhat overblown. Better places to put money.

Knows this well. It's managed well. Tariffs hit them. Managers can fix this. He'd buy it here, but it will be depressed for a while.

The entire trucking sector faces a freight recession--falling rates and too many truckers working post-2022. Demand is weak as consumer spending in the US is weak. In the meantime, TFII bought UPS Freight and are struggling to improving that cost structure. Management has been great buying and integrating companies, and generating free cash flow. TFII is reducing costs to build that cash flow which they use to buy back shares or buy companies.

His team eliminated all stocks related to tariffs. Freight rates and volumes have come down. There's a sense that no one really knows what the next leg of this trade war's going to be. Even down here, he wouldn't think about buying until there's some real clarity on that.

All of the trucking companies are really suffering. Too many truckers brought on board, while shipment volumes went down. Seeing a base case on this name, which is a positive overall. He foresees sideways moves at this point. Seasonally, sector starts to pick up now. If you're going to be patient with it, could pick some up here.

Timing was not great on this one. Still one of the best trucking companies in NA. Indigestion integrating less-than-truckload acquisition; shook up that management, and that bodes well. Whole sector is facing overcapacity, pressuring rates. Long-term potential and compounding will return.

Top managers. Are one of the best consolidators in an industry that has been in recession for 3 years (that will soon end). TFII boasts 10% free cash flow yield. Are buying back a lot of shares. Great time to accumulate.

A triple top means that a stock has tried to punch to new highs 3 times. You exhaust the buyers each time this happens, and then there was bad news in early 2025 and it was easy for the stock to fall. That downward move is exaggerated because there are no more buyers to step in.

Chart shows how it's now back at the congestion levels of 2021-2022, so it's found some new buyers. He's always found the transportation sector a challenging area in which to make money.

Returns were better than expected but it lowered its outlook. He suggested the caller could pick away and add to their holdings but if they owned a full position, just hold. The over supply of trucks during the pandemic has to work its way through the markets. The tariff situation won't help.

Is the worst company to own during a tariff war. Their last quarter still reported significant earnings and free cash flow. Is aggressively buying back shares and reducing costs. Trading at a reasonable PE until it recovers.

Long-standing consolidator of fragmented trucking industry. Lots of respect for management. Lean operating philosophy. Ongoing freight recession, plus 3 back-to-back earnings misses. Ended this pretty convincingly with latest earnings report. Trades at 17.5x PE. 

Seeing major inflection point in earnings, expects they'll grow at 24% compounded pace for next 3 years. Pullbacks in this name are always buyable. Yield is 1.85%.

It has sold off a lot so you could start a position and dollar cost average into a turn-around. It has a healthy balance sheet and lots of free cash flow so it will turn around so don't wait even though it could go lower.

Tariffs, supply chains, and deliveries. Down 40% YTD. Short term headwinds, long term who knows? Will things ease up over time or get worse? Good time to buy a quality name. Metrics hit home, amongst the best in the industry. ROIC is 10%, WACC is ~8% -- still making FCF.

Companies like this one, that can turn profits into free cash, can get through the tough times and continue business as usual. Margins will be hurt in short term, but you have to think long term. Increased dividend.

He was looking for a turn in the trucking cycle, and the stock was already off from highs. But it hasn't turned around. Then came tariffs. Kitchen-sink quarters. Very cyclical name. Still, this is a "when" thesis, not an "if" thesis. Trades ~10x PE for 2027, growing around 33%. Great compounder, always M&A upside. Very skilled management, long-term win.

This is a speculative buy. There has been a freight recession in place since last year due to an over-supply of freight and storage trucks during the pandemic.