TFI International Inc (TFII.TO)

All of the trucking companies are really suffering. Too many truckers brought on board, while shipment volumes went down. Seeing a base case on this name, which is a positive overall. He foresees sideways moves at this point. Seasonally, sector starts to pick up now. If you're going to be patient with it, could pick some up here.

Timing was not great on this one. Still one of the best trucking companies in NA. Indigestion integrating less-than-truckload acquisition; shook up that management, and that bodes well. Whole sector is facing overcapacity, pressuring rates. Long-term potential and compounding will return.

Top managers. Are one of the best consolidators in an industry that has been in recession for 3 years (that will soon end). TFII boasts 10% free cash flow yield. Are buying back a lot of shares. Great time to accumulate.

A triple top means that a stock has tried to punch to new highs 3 times. You exhaust the buyers each time this happens, and then there was bad news in early 2025 and it was easy for the stock to fall. That downward move is exaggerated because there are no more buyers to step in.

Chart shows how it's now back at the congestion levels of 2021-2022, so it's found some new buyers. He's always found the transportation sector a challenging area in which to make money.

Returns were better than expected but it lowered its outlook. He suggested the caller could pick away and add to their holdings but if they owned a full position, just hold. The over supply of trucks during the pandemic has to work its way through the markets. The tariff situation won't help.

Is the worst company to own during a tariff war. Their last quarter still reported significant earnings and free cash flow. Is aggressively buying back shares and reducing costs. Trading at a reasonable PE until it recovers.

Long-standing consolidator of fragmented trucking industry. Lots of respect for management. Lean operating philosophy. Ongoing freight recession, plus 3 back-to-back earnings misses. Ended this pretty convincingly with latest earnings report. Trades at 17.5x PE. 

Seeing major inflection point in earnings, expects they'll grow at 24% compounded pace for next 3 years. Pullbacks in this name are always buyable. Yield is 1.85%.

It has sold off a lot so you could start a position and dollar cost average into a turn-around. It has a healthy balance sheet and lots of free cash flow so it will turn around so don't wait even though it could go lower.

Tariffs, supply chains, and deliveries. Down 40% YTD. Short term headwinds, long term who knows? Will things ease up over time or get worse? Good time to buy a quality name. Metrics hit home, amongst the best in the industry. ROIC is 10%, WACC is ~8% -- still making FCF.

Companies like this one, that can turn profits into free cash, can get through the tough times and continue business as usual. Margins will be hurt in short term, but you have to think long term. Increased dividend.

He was looking for a turn in the trucking cycle, and the stock was already off from highs. But it hasn't turned around. Then came tariffs. Kitchen-sink quarters. Very cyclical name. Still, this is a "when" thesis, not an "if" thesis. Trades ~10x PE for 2027, growing around 33%. Great compounder, always M&A upside. Very skilled management, long-term win.

This is a speculative buy. There has been a freight recession in place since last year due to an over-supply of freight and storage trucks during the pandemic.

They operate in the US and Canada, but don't ship a lot across the border. But it's projected that there will be 60% fewer Chinese goods reaching the LA port in a few weeks, so this will be a real lull in shipping. If you can wait for a possible long period of slower shipping, this is not a bad place to invest. But this could be a bit of a wait. He is holding his shares.

Last 2 quarters have not been good. EPS is the worst it's been since 2021. Tariff uncertainty, and company's saying it's not doing any M&A this year (but that's one of its embedded catalysts for growth). Earnings down 17-30% for 2025. FCF was up 40%. Management's seeing some accretion from recent acquisition.

All this negative news was said yesterday, and the stock had a great rally. Often a sign that sellers are washed out. But for that thesis to be correct, we need to avoid a darker economic outcome. Very cyclical. Sees 20% growth in 2026-2028, assuming there's a rebound. 

Cheap enough at 11x 2026. On days like today, yes, he'd sell puts with a $90-95 or so strike. Know that growth stocks can go down a lot in dark economic times. This stock is going to go back to former highs and beat them, and you want to be there for that.

Did really well for 10-12 years or more. Earnings have fallen from the $8-10 range to $5. Analysts still have great faith in it. Great management. Looking to spin off less-than-truckload. Affected by turmoil in China. Short-term dislocation is huge. Fine to buy and hold.

We would not see a rush, but we would be OK buying a partial position (1/5th or so) into any further weakness. It may take a while for things to recover. We think over three years it will be higher, but the short term outlook is much harder to call. 
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