Michael Sprung TFI International Inc TFII-T HOLD Apr 28, 2025

Applauds decision to reverse course on moving to US. Pretty weak Q4, drawdown of 40%. Since 2000, stock's generated total return of 16,000%, so pullbacks are buyable. Management capable of addressing and resolving problems. Good consolidator of fragmented industry. Now trading at 14x PE, discount to its 5-year average of 16x. Incredible entry point. Yield is 2%.

Q4 was a stinker, guidance was very tough. Tariff worries are weighing on capex spending of many of its customers. If tariffs are implemented, could still take another hit.

Stock's fallen way too much, he can't believe it's still going down. Trading at very deep discount to normalized earnings. Screaming buy, but you have to look through the next few quarters of uncertainty.

If we're going into a slowdown, this name is expensive. Balance sheet is OK. FMV is ~$147. Immediate downside target of $100 or so. Don't be in too much of a hurry to get in. A lot of other stocks have more upside potential. 

Added recently on the selloff. Trading at 15x 2025 earnings, so it's cheap. Fundamentals score 10/10. A contrarian value play, about 40% upside from here.

Best of breed. HQ remains in Canada, hearing message loud and clear from shareholders. Tremendous compounder, great serial acquirer. Purchase of UPS less-than-truckload still trying to be integrated to their standard. A good business, buy on sale.

They had an ugly last quarter (shares tanked) in a surprising miss. They tend to have good quarters. They make well-time acquisitions in troubled times, so wait for that to happen again to boost shares. This stock won't do much for the next 6 months.

We would not see a rush, but we would be OK buying a partial position (1/5th or so) into any further weakness. It may take a while for things to recover. We think over three years it will be higher, but the short term outlook is much harder to call. 
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Did really well for 10-12 years or more. Earnings have fallen from the $8-10 range to $5. Analysts still have great faith in it. Great management. Looking to spin off less-than-truckload. Affected by turmoil in China. Short-term dislocation is huge. Fine to buy and hold.

Last 2 quarters have not been good. EPS is the worst it's been since 2021. Tariff uncertainty, and company's saying it's not doing any M&A this year (but that's one of its embedded catalysts for growth). Earnings down 17-30% for 2025. FCF was up 40%. Management's seeing some accretion from recent acquisition.

All this negative news was said yesterday, and the stock had a great rally. Often a sign that sellers are washed out. But for that thesis to be correct, we need to avoid a darker economic outcome. Very cyclical. Sees 20% growth in 2026-2028, assuming there's a rebound. 

Cheap enough at 11x 2026. On days like today, yes, he'd sell puts with a $90-95 or so strike. Know that growth stocks can go down a lot in dark economic times. This stock is going to go back to former highs and beat them, and you want to be there for that.