Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA)

An Israeli company that trades in the US. The largest generic pharmaceutical company in the world. They went through a difficult management period after its founder passed away. The important part of the generics is not really the molecule part (if you have smart people you can copy the molecules). The important part is the legal aspect. And here this company is very very strong. It is going to take a while to restructure the company, but they have a great franchise. Over a 3 to 5 years’ time horizon it is a great story to buy.

Teva or Pfizer? He sold Teva 18 months ago. Generic drug prices are under pressure though have levelled off. Their migraine drug has struggled. Instead, he prefers Pfizer with 140 drugs generating $100 million in revenues. They make good acquisitions and are enjoying great progress in oncology. They're also repatriating $24.5 billion with $5 million going to buybacks. Just announced they want to sell their consumer products division, so the impact of this is unknown. 12x forward earnings. Fabulously run company. Talk of major acquisitions. Happy to hold this.

He thinks the generic drug space is the cheapest sector out there. Valeant impacted this space severely. He holds this and so does Warren Buffet. He likes this space, but bought it at a lower price. He sees fair value at $25.11 – a 30% upside potential.

Telepharmaceuticals is a scandal in Israel where he's just visited. Teva is the leader there. Their problems are deep and broad, from Teva's executive suite on down. Sold off his shares a while ago. Don't go near it. Need to get their ship in order.

Took on a lot of debt to enter the specialty pharma area and stumbled. Suffered a sell-off. But have recently righted the ship, replaced the CEO and announced major cost-cutting. Enjoyed a big rebound, but says be very cautious.

They are having competition with their biggest product. Mylan (MYL-Q) has come out with a generic alternative to their Copaxone. Their debt has been heavily laden. Just let 10,000-15,000 Israeli employees go. You have to be in a gambling phase, because this could go to zero with their heavy outstanding debt load. They don't have a lot of new products coming out. Instead of playing the stock, he is looking at their bonds.

A pharmaceutical that does generics as well as branded drugs. The stock has not done well. Has new management, which are cutting costs. Also cut their dividend. There isn’t a lot of visibility on the pipeline, because one of their key branded drugs is seeing more competition and is going generic soon.

This is one he picked many years ago, and it only had one good year. They bought assets from Allergan, and it just went down the toilet. Although it has recovered significantly, turnarounds are hard. He sold his holdings in early 2017, and is not looking at this until it becomes another force again.

Don’t go near it. They are looking at mid-20% losses this and next year then flat earnings after that.

The largest generic drug manufacturer. The FDA and other global drug regulators and governments are so focused on driving down the costs of healthcare, including drugs, there is pressure on the entire generics sector. The company has had many other issues as well.

This has fallen a long way. What you have to think about is, should you take a tax loss. If you haven’t done it yet, it might be worthwhile. You can also buy it back after 30 days and you will have crystallized your loss.

Doesn’t see any Buy signal yet. It looks like it will continue going lower. Let buyers emerge first, before buying this. He would avoid for now.

(A Top Pick Dec 28/16. Down 61%.) He got out of this 2 months later at about $32, so was down about 10%. Shortly after he bought this, the CEO left for undisclosed reasons, and he took that as a giant warning sign, so he ran away that same day.

He has not been in it for a long time. It is a very competitive space and a few drugs were up against competition. He has not got excited about it and has not invested in it.

Politicians love to hate drug stocks, because they are the most obvious part of the healthcare system and they can badmouth them. As a generic manufacturer, the only cost they have is the pill, and they can drive down the price. As governments globally tried to encourage generic pharmaceuticals, to take pricing pressure off, there was a lot of government support for them. Now that most of the major drug companies have been genericized, they are squeezing them as well. This company consolidated and took on a lot of debt, and are still being squeezed. 7.5% dividend yield.