Stock Opinions by Mark Grammer - Stockchase Experts
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Mark Grammer

On Stockchase since : Sep 2002

Managing Dir. & Portfolio Manager at Gluskin Sheff & Associates

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Stock Opinions by Mark Grammer - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

March 22, 2018

[Note: President Trump announced tariffs on China on the day of this interview] He is concerned about risks arising out of trade rhetoric and trade barriers. He met with Steve Bannon last year; Bannon said that the Trump administration is willing to accept a near-term slowdown in the US economy in order to get trade barriers in place. Grammer sees this as problematic  

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[Note: President Trump announced tariffs on China on the day of this interview] He is concerned about risks arising out of trade rhetoric and trade barriers. He met with Steve Bannon last year; Bannon said that the Trump administration is willing to accept a near-term slowdown in the US economy in order to get trade barriers in place. Grammer sees this as problematic  

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Mark Grammer

Managing D, Gluskin Sheff & Asso...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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BUY on WEAKNESS

This is an extraordinarily well-run company. He has been a shareholder for a long time but is not one now because of valuation. He will buy again when the price goes down

Transportation
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This is an extraordinarily well-run company. He has been a shareholder for a long time but is not one now because of valuation. He will buy again when the price goes down

Transportation
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Mark Grammer

Managing D, Gluskin Sheff & Asso...

Price Price
$124.660
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Orange SA(ORAN-N) 

March 22, 2018

This is a decent company. He has owned it but does not now because he doesn’t see much upside at this time. Cost containment would improve their margins and would therefore improve their value. He doesn’t see room for a lot of growth of this company in Europe. The dividend will probably be safe but only modest growth. (Analysts’ price target is 17€, the stock trades at 14€)

Utilities
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This is a decent company. He has owned it but does not now because he doesn’t see much upside at this time. Cost containment would improve their margins and would therefore improve their value. He doesn’t see room for a lot of growth of this company in Europe. The dividend will probably be safe but only modest growth. (Analysts’ price target is 17€, the stock trades at 14€)

Utilities
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Mark Grammer

Managing D, Gluskin Sheff & Asso...

Price Price
$16.740
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY

This is a very good company, well-positioned, but it is facing pricing pressure. The market share is around 80% so there is not much room for growth. Their recently-released earnings were decent. They increased the dividend a little. This company, like other large mobile operators, is more a dividend play than a growth opportunity. There stock has been drifting lower this year because there is not much interest in the name at this time.

Telecommunications
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This is a very good company, well-positioned, but it is facing pricing pressure. The market share is around 80% so there is not much room for growth. Their recently-released earnings were decent. They increased the dividend a little. This company, like other large mobile operators, is more a dividend play than a growth opportunity. There stock has been drifting lower this year because there is not much interest in the name at this time.

Telecommunications
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Mark Grammer

Managing D, Gluskin Sheff & Asso...

Price Price
$45.510
Owned Owned
No

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Diageo PLC(DEO-N) 

March 22, 2018

He thinks the spirits industry is in a good position now. Scotch whiskeys are in short supply, other whiskeys are selling well. Diageo is the world leader in this. He will buy this when it hits the right price. He discussed cannabis with them a few months ago. They have made initial investments in cannabis stocks but are still taking a wait-and-see attitude. He expects them to acquire a cannabis company later, after the dust settles.

food processing
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He thinks the spirits industry is in a good position now. Scotch whiskeys are in short supply, other whiskeys are selling well. Diageo is the world leader in this. He will buy this when it hits the right price. He discussed cannabis with them a few months ago. They have made initial investments in cannabis stocks but are still taking a wait-and-see attitude. He expects them to acquire a cannabis company later, after the dust settles.

food processing
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Mark Grammer

Managing D, Gluskin Sheff & Asso...

Price Price
$132.950
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT

This is in a similar place to Orange, China Mobile and other large and successful telecom companies. They are a dividend play, not a growth play. Dividend plays are less attractive in a rising interest environment. This is a rational competitor and investors are not likely to lose money in it.

telephone utilities
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This is in a similar place to Orange, China Mobile and other large and successful telecom companies. They are a dividend play, not a growth play. Dividend plays are less attractive in a rising interest environment. This is a rational competitor and investors are not likely to lose money in it.

telephone utilities
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Mark Grammer

Managing D, Gluskin Sheff & Asso...

Price Price
$11.830
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Novartis AG(NVS-N) 

March 22, 2018

He likes it because of its exposure to Entresto, which cardiologists often call a wonder drug. The drug is relatively expensive ($9 per day) so the issue is getting insurance companies to pay for it. He thinks the runway for the drug is excellent and that it will become a blockbuster within a year or two. Pharma companies are under pressure because Trump is currently talking about reducing drug prices, but he (Grammer) is willing to wait on this stock.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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He likes it because of its exposure to Entresto, which cardiologists often call a wonder drug. The drug is relatively expensive ($9 per day) so the issue is getting insurance companies to pay for it. He thinks the runway for the drug is excellent and that it will become a blockbuster within a year or two. Pharma companies are under pressure because Trump is currently talking about reducing drug prices, but he (Grammer) is willing to wait on this stock.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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Mark Grammer

Managing D, Gluskin Sheff & Asso...

Price Price
$79.880
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick April 20, 2017. Up 51.66%). This is a play on the tight Japanese labour market. Persol has done well as a temporary placement agency and has expanded into recruiting, which is a higher-margin business, and is doing well there. Persol was founded by a woman (and it has made her the wealthiest woman in Japan). It finds opportunities for women in an economy that is somewhat male-dominated. This is a distinctive and successful aspect of its business.

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(A Top Pick April 20, 2017. Up 51.66%). This is a play on the tight Japanese labour market. Persol has done well as a temporary placement agency and has expanded into recruiting, which is a higher-margin business, and is doing well there. Persol was founded by a woman (and it has made her the wealthiest woman in Japan). It finds opportunities for women in an economy that is somewhat male-dominated. This is a distinctive and successful aspect of its business.

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Mark Grammer

Managing D, Gluskin Sheff & Asso...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Kasikorn Bank(KBANK-BBK) 

March 22, 2018

(A Top Pick April 20, 2017. Up 16.98%). This is one of the biggest banks in Thailand. This is conservatively run. The economy slowed down last year during a year-long period of mourning for the deceased Thai monarch. That has finished and the economy is picking back up. He expects infrastructure spending to increase, which will filter into small and midsize enterprises which is Kasikornbank’s sweet spot.

Financial Services
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(A Top Pick April 20, 2017. Up 16.98%). This is one of the biggest banks in Thailand. This is conservatively run. The economy slowed down last year during a year-long period of mourning for the deceased Thai monarch. That has finished and the economy is picking back up. He expects infrastructure spending to increase, which will filter into small and midsize enterprises which is Kasikornbank’s sweet spot.

Financial Services
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Mark Grammer

Managing D, Gluskin Sheff & Asso...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick April 20, 2017. Up 19.98%). This is a well run company. Bernard Arnault is a fantastic manager; he moves people around in the company to broaden their experience, and shakes things up. Grammer sees this as the world’s leading company and as a company he could own forever.

clothing
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(A Top Pick April 20, 2017. Up 19.98%). This is a well run company. Bernard Arnault is a fantastic manager; he moves people around in the company to broaden their experience, and shakes things up. Grammer sees this as the world’s leading company and as a company he could own forever.

clothing
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Mark Grammer

Managing D, Gluskin Sheff & Asso...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Baidu.com(BIDU-Q) 

March 22, 2018

This is a well-placed company, the Google of China. Search will continue to grow. Baidu has had some hiccups along the way but they are doing well now. They have heavy investment in artificial intelligence which he thinks will be valuable. He is out of Chinese technology companies at this point because of valuation. He thinks these stocks are a little frothy at the moment. If he had to rank potential investments in Chinese technology, he would place Tencent Holdings at the top. Baidu might be second, followed closely by Alibaba.

other services
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This is a well-placed company, the Google of China. Search will continue to grow. Baidu has had some hiccups along the way but they are doing well now. They have heavy investment in artificial intelligence which he thinks will be valuable. He is out of Chinese technology companies at this point because of valuation. He thinks these stocks are a little frothy at the moment. If he had to rank potential investments in Chinese technology, he would place Tencent Holdings at the top. Baidu might be second, followed closely by Alibaba.

other services
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Mark Grammer

Managing D, Gluskin Sheff & Asso...

Price Price
$236.110
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY

This is another dividend stock. Given the outlook on interest rates and the central bank quantitative tightening around the world, he is not excited about dividend plays. In addition, tobacco is a challenged industry. He thinks Japan Tobacco will have to make an acquisition, probably Imperial Tobacco, so there is a lot of uncertainty here.  (Analysts’ price target is 4000¥, the stock trades at 2800¥)

Consumer Products
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This is another dividend stock. Given the outlook on interest rates and the central bank quantitative tightening around the world, he is not excited about dividend plays. In addition, tobacco is a challenged industry. He thinks Japan Tobacco will have to make an acquisition, probably Imperial Tobacco, so there is a lot of uncertainty here.  (Analysts’ price target is 4000¥, the stock trades at 2800¥)

Consumer Products
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Mark Grammer

Managing D, Gluskin Sheff & Asso...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
No

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SELL
Weibo(WB-O) 

March 22, 2018

He thinks the price is frothy. If someone holds it now, and has made a profit, this is a good time to take profits. (Analysts’ price target is 146$)

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He thinks the price is frothy. If someone holds it now, and has made a profit, this is a good time to take profits. (Analysts’ price target is 146$)

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Mark Grammer

Managing D, Gluskin Sheff & Asso...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY

He doesn’t invest in ETFs. As a matter of policy, he believes he can do better with individual stocks as an active investor. His weighting of China is down. He expects the Chinese government to appease the United States in limited ways over the short term rather than engaging in a trade war. This may slightly reduce the growth of the Chinese economy, say from 6.5% to 6%. The Chinese economy is in a state of transition, with more emphasis on domestic consumption. This will limit the impact of trade barriers, but at this time, there is enough risk that he has reduced his emphasis on China.

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He doesn’t invest in ETFs. As a matter of policy, he believes he can do better with individual stocks as an active investor. His weighting of China is down. He expects the Chinese government to appease the United States in limited ways over the short term rather than engaging in a trade war. This may slightly reduce the growth of the Chinese economy, say from 6.5% to 6%. The Chinese economy is in a state of transition, with more emphasis on domestic consumption. This will limit the impact of trade barriers, but at this time, there is enough risk that he has reduced his emphasis on China.

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0 comments
Mark Grammer

Managing D, Gluskin Sheff & Asso...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY

TSM is on the leading edge of the semiconductor industry. They use some of the most sophisticated equipment and can offer customers excellent products. There is some concern because the visionary CEO has retired and it too soon to tell whether new management will be as visionary. Also there is concern that the tech space has run too far and may be due for a pullback.

electrical/electronic
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TSM is on the leading edge of the semiconductor industry. They use some of the most sophisticated equipment and can offer customers excellent products. There is some concern because the visionary CEO has retired and it too soon to tell whether new management will be as visionary. Also there is concern that the tech space has run too far and may be due for a pullback.

electrical/electronic
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0 comments
Mark Grammer

Managing D, Gluskin Sheff & Asso...

Price Price
$43.690
Owned Owned
No

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