Paul MacDonald

Best among the weight-loss drugs, more effective than its peers. Also, the oral version will be a game-changer. LLY is gaining market share as its manufacturing ramps up. Shares are flat and need a catalyst, possibly on Aug. 7 with earnings. Their oncology platform is also doing well. He expects their revenues to double by 2030, based on 25-30% compounded growth.

They just reported a strong quarter. There are signs of restocking--and demand for their products. They are one of the dominant diagnostic tools companies. They had tariff uncertainty in China. Also, the US has been cutting health funding, which reduces demand for TMO products used in R&D. However, TMO remains best in class.

They have 10 blockbuster drugs, but their growth is slower than some peers. They had some drug trial misses recently, and EPS growth is around 3-5%. But given its drug diversity, AMGN is the safer of the large biotechs. Have a good oncology drug pipeline. Good to own, but not explosive growth ahead.

Their drugs have done great in cystic fibrosis (which has become the standard of care) and gene therapies (innovative). Their science has been at the front end of the curve.

Was upgraded a few times today after earnings--doing well. A quality healthcare name though a general rule in healthcare is don't own just one name in a space, because what can go right one stock, could go wrong in another and vice versa or wrong for both. Diversify.

Sold it a few years ago because R&D activity wasn't there, and were overpaying for companies, namely Seagen. The stock is cheap, but carries a lot of debt. Isn't sure if the dividend is secure. 

Bought is heavily this morning. Is a diversified, large-cap pharma with 45% of revenue is oncology. Keytruda goes off patent in 2028, so there's a race to offset that patent. Vaccines face issues--Gardisil isn't performing in China, and RFK Jr. is anti-vaccines. However, if they combine an enzyme with a drug like Keytruda, does that reset the patent? Does the patent continue? That is in debate.

Has owned this over a decade. Loves it when they bought Allergan. The concern lay with Humira coming off patent a year ago, but they used Humira's cash flow to diversify their entire franchise. Pays a solid yield and offers around 9% EPS growth.

Nothing is too big to fail, but UNH is so integrated into the US healthcare system that they are an essential service. Problem is more people are getting utilization in areas that are higher cost. So, their estimates got blown out. Has long owned this. He recommended it for its multiyear consistent earnings. They just reported and are guiding resumption of growth in 2026. Is at a 35% discount to its 3-year forward earnings. He was buying this morning on their earnings call.

Waters Corp is buying part of their diagnostics business. Waters wants to be vertically integrated to compete with TMO and Danaher. Most of BDX's business lies with hospitals, which gives him pause because of the macro headwinds. He hasn't owned this in a few years. Let's get through the Waters deal, then he will assess BDX.

Loves it. Within tools diagnostics, they boast high growth among its peers. They make the equipment that produces biological drugs. Are exposed to the R&D space, which is seeing less funding due to Washington. The stock took a hit after the Waters-Becton deal, fearing more competition. 80% of revenue is recurring. Medium/long-term this remains a good business. There is a lot of policy noise on pharma, though, from Trump. This and this space needs to see some catalysts, perhaps in the fall, when we see hard numbers on the impact of Washington.

No, it's stock-specific. AZN reported a beat and raise today, for instance. So is Novartis. Gilead in the US is holding on well.

Their vaccine division suffers from the general dismay over vaccines in the US (so does Merck), but accounts for only a third of its business. Ongoing trials could put them back in the race in drugs vs. peers. Expects the sentiment overhang to persist in vaccines.

He hasn't seen valuations like this since 2020 briefly and 1993. Their big growth driver is orthopedics with robot-assisted surgeries, with growth expected to double over 5 years; robots account for roughly 45% of their orthopedics business.