Paul MacDonald
Member since: Jun '16
Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager at
Harvest Portfolios Group
Harvest Portfolios Group
Reveal Expert Rating
242 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
(A Top Pick Jan 17/20, Up 14%) An easy hold. Great visibility. Managed care. Commercial health insurance, plus one of the key administrators of Medicare and Medicaid. Enjoys bipartisan support. Underlying businesses are doing great.
(A Top Pick Jan 17/20, Down 15%) Committed to transitioning to a more pure play R&D-focused biopharmaceutical company. But it hasn't delivered. Consumer businesses are being spun out. Great vaccine business, but there's competition. OK at current valuations. Risk profile has changed. Finances will be impacted by number of vaccines actually needed.
(A Top Pick Jan 17/20, Up 16%) Medical devices and robotic-assisted surgery. Elective surgeries have resumed from last quarter.
Great growth in robotics surgery. Uptick in elective surgery. Stands to benefit from pent-up demand as we return to normal. Likes it short- and medium-term. Yield is 1.03% (Analysts’ price target is $249.12)
Large cap biotech. Humera generates $20B a year in revenue. Exceptional job at using that cashflow to diversify, as in buying Allergan. 15% EPS, clean balance sheet. Its value will eventually be realized. Yield is 5%. (Analysts’ price target is $121.05)
Signal
Opinion
Expert
Chart
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 11, 2021
Global, aging population is one of the few long-term, indefinite themes. Definitely. In the medium- to long-term, you spend on medical devices and drugs as you age. That structural backdrop remains in place. Short-term, there are a number of catalysts such as the US election is over and vaccine development. Public and political perception is bestowing a halo effect on companies. These companies are growing earnings and have great clarity. This sector is trading at a 20-year discount to the market, and he doesn't think that's reasonable given the tailwinds.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Global, aging population is one of the few long-term, indefinite themes. Definitely. In the medium- to long-term, you spend on medical devices and drugs as you age. That structural backdrop remains in place. Short-term, there are a number of catalysts such as the US election is over and vaccine development. Public and political perception is bestowing a halo effect on companies. These companies are growing earnings and have great clarity. This sector is trading at a 20-year discount to the market, and he doesn't think that's reasonable given the tailwinds.
SELL
SELL
February 11, 2021
Kudos to the new executive at delevering and cleaning things up. Inexpensive valuation. Still a lot of debt. A turnaround story. 3% of your portfolio is a bit heavy. Add some diversity. Had a great move. Be cautious.
Show full opinionHide full opinionKudos to the new executive at delevering and cleaning things up. Inexpensive valuation. Still a lot of debt. A turnaround story. 3% of your portfolio is a bit heavy. Add some diversity. Had a great move. Be cautious.
Healthcare
BUY
BUY
February 11, 2021
Diversified medical device company. Acquisitions increased leverage, but they've paid it down. Less focused on slower growth business, more on devices. Great quality. Positive results from Covid testing have exceeded estimates.
Show full opinionHide full opinionDiversified medical device company. Acquisitions increased leverage, but they've paid it down. Less focused on slower growth business, more on devices. Great quality. Positive results from Covid testing have exceeded estimates.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 11, 2021
Very high risk, very high reward. Seeing competition on its core drugs. Its Alzheimer's drug didn't get a great reception. Somewhere around June 7 the regulator will rule on this drug. Could be impacted 30% up or 50% down. Not for him.
Show full opinionHide full opinionVery high risk, very high reward. Seeing competition on its core drugs. Its Alzheimer's drug didn't get a great reception. Somewhere around June 7 the regulator will rule on this drug. Could be impacted 30% up or 50% down. Not for him.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
BUY
BUY
February 11, 2021
Recent great results on phase 2 of Alzheimer's testing. There will be a lot of focus on the results around March 12. It it works, tremendous upside. Huge for families and for LLY. Diabetes franchise is performing extremely well. Oncology is building out.
Show full opinionHide full opinionRecent great results on phase 2 of Alzheimer's testing. There will be a lot of focus on the results around March 12. It it works, tremendous upside. Huge for families and for LLY. Diabetes franchise is performing extremely well. Oncology is building out.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 11, 2021
(A Top Pick Jan 17/20, Up 14%) An easy hold. Great visibility. Managed care. Commercial health insurance, plus one of the key administrators of Medicare and Medicaid. Enjoys bipartisan support. Underlying businesses are doing great.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Jan 17/20, Up 14%) An easy hold. Great visibility. Managed care. Commercial health insurance, plus one of the key administrators of Medicare and Medicaid. Enjoys bipartisan support. Underlying businesses are doing great.
medical services
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 11, 2021
(A Top Pick Jan 17/20, Down 15%) Committed to transitioning to a more pure play R&D-focused biopharmaceutical company. But it hasn't delivered. Consumer businesses are being spun out. Great vaccine business, but there's competition. OK at current valuations. Risk profile has changed. Finances will be impacted by number of vaccines actually needed.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Jan 17/20, Down 15%) Committed to transitioning to a more pure play R&D-focused biopharmaceutical company. But it hasn't delivered. Consumer businesses are being spun out. Great vaccine business, but there's competition. OK at current valuations. Risk profile has changed. Finances will be impacted by number of vaccines actually needed.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 11, 2021
(A Top Pick Jan 17/20, Up 16%) Medical devices and robotic-assisted surgery. Elective surgeries have resumed from last quarter.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Jan 17/20, Up 16%) Medical devices and robotic-assisted surgery. Elective surgeries have resumed from last quarter.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
WAIT
WAIT
February 11, 2021
Syringes, IVs, disposable items. On his hot watch list. He's looking at hospital utilization rates. The market is waiting too. Once rates tick up, they'll be a direct beneficiary.
Show full opinionHide full opinionSyringes, IVs, disposable items. On his hot watch list. He's looking at hospital utilization rates. The market is waiting too. Once rates tick up, they'll be a direct beneficiary.
Healthcare
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 11, 2021
VTRS vs. TMO VTRS has lower growth assets with fairly consistent cashflows. TMO is into tools and diagnostics. 75% of TMO's business is consumables. It's benefitting significantly from Covid, and this should continue. They blew away estimates, and so you pay a bit more for it.
Pharma & Healthcare
BUY
BUY
February 11, 2021
TMO vs. VTRS VTRS has lower growth assets with fairly consistent cashflows. TMO is into tools and diagnostics. 75% of TMO's business is consumables. It's benefitting significantly from Covid, and this should continue. They blew away estimates, and so you pay a bit more for it.
electrical/electronic
HOLD
HOLD
February 11, 2021
Cardiovascular-related devices, and they're doing very well. Raised equity, and pulled a device from market due to potential safety issues. Took a bit of a hit on earnings. Likes it, but he's watching closely as it becomes more concentrated.
Show full opinionHide full opinionCardiovascular-related devices, and they're doing very well. Raised equity, and pulled a device from market due to potential safety issues. Took a bit of a hit on earnings. Likes it, but he's watching closely as it becomes more concentrated.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 11, 2021
What about investing in some of the experimental areas in biotech? There's a lot of rotation from growth in the markets, even though we're hitting new highs. It's not really going from growth to value; it's going from growth to momentum. He sees it in the small cap biotech space. Russell small cap healthcare is up about 75% compared to large cap healthcare up 9%. He prefers to look at good quality businesses with above-market earnings growth at a 20-year discount on valuation. Be aware of this when you start looking at new areas.
Show full opinionHide full opinionWhat about investing in some of the experimental areas in biotech? There's a lot of rotation from growth in the markets, even though we're hitting new highs. It's not really going from growth to value; it's going from growth to momentum. He sees it in the small cap biotech space. Russell small cap healthcare is up about 75% compared to large cap healthcare up 9%. He prefers to look at good quality businesses with above-market earnings growth at a 20-year discount on valuation. Be aware of this when you start looking at new areas.
HOLD
HOLD
February 11, 2021
Diversified large cap. A lot of businesses working really well. Celgene acquisition diversified their oncology. Main drug is performing well. Trading at 8.5x forward earnings, with low double digit EPS growth. One of his core holdings.
Diversified large cap. A lot of businesses working really well. Celgene acquisition diversified their oncology. Main drug is performing well. Trading at 8.5x forward earnings, with low double digit EPS growth. One of his core holdings.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 11, 2021
Comment on the change from ROC to capital gains on fund distribution. Bulk of distribution is generated through covered calls, which are taxed as capital gains. Still a tax efficient distribution. HHL.A is currency hedged, while the HHL.U is priced in US dollars.
Show full opinionHide full opinionComment on the change from ROC to capital gains on fund distribution. Bulk of distribution is generated through covered calls, which are taxed as capital gains. Still a tax efficient distribution. HHL.A is currency hedged, while the HHL.U is priced in US dollars.
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