
TSE:TD
All Cdn banks are hitting at least 52-week highs and in some cases, all-time highs. That puts them back to where they were 5-6 years ago. The correct tactic is to buy the one that has gone up the least or gone down the most the previous year and vice versa. You can buy this one, stick it in the bottom drawer and forget about it. They’re raising dividends again. Have the big US presence. Best performer over the last decade.
Likes their US banking side. There was some talk that they were going to buy into a major US bank, Citizens Bank, which is in the North/East, but has 1400 branches, which might be too big a bite so he is a little concerned about that. So far the US expansion has worked very well for them. They have more branches in the US than they do in Canada.
(A Top Pick Oct 29/12. Up 26.32%.) Bought April $80 Calls at $4.75. This is a strong bank and is going to do really well. He would just hang onto these. You have until January 2015 so there is lots of time. He expects the stock will be over $100, which would give you a double on the original position.
Floating-Rate Preferred, Series T (TD.PR.T-T). Given what the market has been doing recently, he wanted to be a bit more defensive so has started to slowly build up his floating side. This is at a predetermined spread of 160 basis points over the government of Canada T-Bill. As the rates start to rise, this will go up. Paying about 2.60%-2.65%, which is more of a money market type. It is a dividend, you are getting, not interest so it would be about 3.5% of a money market type of paper.
Arguably Canada’s best managed and safest bank but, because of that, it is also one of the slowest growing because ROE is not as much as any of the others. He would choose to invest in other banks over this one, such as Bank of Montréal (BMO-T), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T), CIBC (CM-T) as well as Royal Bank (RY-T), which has the highest ROE, but you are also paying the most as compared to the other 2.
What bank would you buy and would you do it now or later? Canadian banks in general are pretty reasonable value right now. His favourite would be Toronto Dominion (TD-T). Has been pretty successful in expanding into the US market. He sees this as a pretty superior bank to some of the regional banks in the US so there is lots of room for them to make progress there.
This is about 50% US now. They were a bit early on acquisitions and in the right areas of Florida, New England, New York and New Jersey. Raised the dividend this past quarter. Put their insurance debacle behind them and marketed it really well. Thinks that in the next quarter they are going to split the stock 2 for 1. Yield of 3.76%. One-year target of $100 ($50).
He would Hold and Buy all of the banks.