Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO)

It has been a core position for him for a long time. He likes the US side of it. The US housing market is bubbling nicely. They are going to get a fair participation. The earnings are out this week. This is a case of slow and steady wins the race.

He loves banks and is max weighted in them. He owns 4 of them. This has been the underperformer. It is either number 1 or 2 in all the businesses in Canada. Stocks are down YTD because of the housing concern, but it does not really matter to them. The bubble is not bursting. This is a good entry point. (Analysts’ target: $71.00).

(Top Pick Apr 12/16, Up 22.40%) The Canadian banks are systematically undervalued right now. There is so much talk about the housing crisis and Canadians being over indebted, but he does not agree. Wealth management is going to be big. There is no increase in defaults in mortgages and only a little in auto and credit cards. With their dividend, what’s not to like? It will be 11 quarters in a row if this quarter the banks again exceed expectations.

He is not big on TD-T, but prefers BNS-T because it is less exposed to Canada and he likes the emerging markets exposure. He is not that excited about Canadian banks because of the lack of loan growth and the housing question overhanging them. The rising Canadian dollar takes away from the US operations.

It is safer because of the US exposure. They have not acted like a 50% American bank. They probably will raise the dividend in the next quarter. (Analysts’ Target: $70.00).

Move some National Bank (NA-T) funds over to this bank? If you want to make a switch, TD makes more sense than National. It has more US exposure. However, he would rather you buy a US bank, such as Citigroup (C-N), J.P. Morgan (JPM-N) or Bank of America (BAC-N).

On a valuation basis, all Canadian banks are trading similar to one another, so don’t let the share price dictate good or bad, cheap or expensive. This is trading at 11X, similar to most of the banks. It has done an excellent job in their retail banking and has the formula down, better than any other Canadian bank. Dividend yield of 3.6%.

This has its wealth component which he likes. It has been a great rewarder to shareholders over time.

The only Canadian bank he owns. He likes that he doesn’t have to buy a US bank because of their US operations. They are retail in nature, which reduces the volatility of capital market activities. Fee income is a big focus for them. The only downside threat that could be out there are auto loans. Because they are in the US, they tend to do better than the American banks, which tend to be very fractured. They don’t have the systems in place like Canadian banks do.

He likes this company if rates rise in the US. They have opportunities in the US because it is a fractured industry. Retail oriented, so there is less volatility and safer, which accounts for a higher dividend over time, compared to the rest of the Canadian banks. Dividend yield of 3.7%. (Analysts’ price target is $71.)

Canadian banks look great right now. Chart shows this had a longer term of consolidation from 2014 to 2016 and then broke out. After topping out this year, all the banks looked like they are basing and trying to break out. Probably not a bad time to be buying the banks.

The rate increase will have less of an impact on them than the others. CM-T or NA-T would be two of the top to benefit from the recent rate increase.

This stock has finally is showing early signs of recovering after being in a downward trend. It is in a trading range and late last week reached above it. It is starting to look interesting, but on a seasonal basis it is strong October to December of each year. It is a bit too early to play the seasonal trade right now.

A serious long-term buy for people who speculate on things for serious stocks.

Canada has a banking oligopoly. This is the 2^nd biggest bank in the country. Has a very strong, dominant domestic franchise and a well positioned asset management franchise. They have a large and growing presence in the US. With interest rates hikes that are occurring in the US, the likelihood of them improving their net interest margins, and ultimately their profitability, is very good. Dividend yield of 3.7%. (Analysts’ price target is $71.)