Suncor Energy Inc (SU.TO)

(A Top Pick March 1/12. Down 10.44%.) Continues to like the fundamentals. Shorter-term they are facing the impact of widening oil differentials in Alberta.

(A Top Pick Feb 13/12. Down 6.95%.) Sold his holdings in November because of concerns on the US fiscal cliff debate. Starting to wade back into this little bit. Really cheap.

Valuation looks attractive. Going to have cash flow per share of about $6 a share as long as oil stays in the $90 range. Going to grow its production. Cutting the cord on some high cost production. 1.7% yield. Hoping there will be an increase in dividends.

He trades for clients. Likes below $30 and sells above mid $30s. Does not see that changing. Doesn’t think keystone gets done until 2015.

(Top Pick Jul 6/12, Up 10.95% Total Return)

Being in Canada, he only bothers with those that can grow their production. Can’t see the government allowing it to being a takeover target. He would be a little bit cautious with this one. Still owns a little bit.

(A Top Pick Feb 9/12. Down 6.57%.) There is far too much value to give up on this one. He has a model price of almost $60, and 86% upside.

Looks like a lot of energy stocks. Nice run in latter 2012 and now we have a lid. Finding support in the $31 area.

Missed on the last quarter because of 1) sued for $1.2 billion on a derivative contract and 2) main upgrader was down for a while. People should be focusing on the amount of free cash flow the company will be spinning off. Generating $2 billion of free cash flow both this year and next. Could be debt free in 2 years but expect they will probably meaningfully increase the dividend.

Canadian oil is locked in place and can’t get to world markets. Great company on an asset basis. He is lighter weighted than he was in energy and is not looking to put more money into the sector. If he was he would have to be a high-yielding one.

Stock pulled back because the earnings they just announced did not meet expectations. The primary thing they did though was to take a huge write-down in respect to their Voyager program. This shouldn’t have taken the market by surprise. Bulletproof balance sheet and some excellent prospects for future development production growth. Margins were probably a little thinner than people were hoping but lately, margins have been very robust.

(A Top Pick Dec 28/11. Up 22.41%.) Still likes. Growing its production well and delivering on profitability. Benefiting from the crack spreads.

A lot like CVE-T, being integrated and owning Petro Canada, they don’t have the same exposure to the price differential that CNQ-T would. The Pipeline is still a factor. Thinks it will underperform CNQ-T if the differential gets fixed.

(Top Pick Jan 2/12, Up 1.22%) Model $63.17, 84% positive differential. Owned for years and fits his definition of value. A core position for his portfolio.

If Keystone is approved, what effect could this have on this company? Would be positive for a lot of companies. There is a story around that capacity of the shipments to the refineries in the gulf are short by 1 million barrels a day. If heavy crude comes down from Canada, there is an opportunity to replace some of the Mexican and Venezuelan heavy oil. There is potential demand for 3-3.5 million barrels a day. There is also some demand coming for shipping oil from the West to the East, which will play well for this company. If he were going back into the oil sands, he would have a very hard look at this one.