Stockchase Opinions

Chyanne FickesSuncor Energy IncSU.TOPAST TOP PICKFeb 25, 2013

(Top Pick Jul 6/12, Up 10.95% Total Return)

$31.37

Stock price when the opinion was issued

integrated oils
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BUY

Likes a lot. Fastest corporate turnaround in Canadian history. Oil sands are a gift to Canada, should generate gobs of FCF for many decades. Discount to global super-majors. Meaningful share buybacks, cheap valuation.

See his Top Picks.

HOLD

One of his picks in the oil sands. Nicely diversified.

STRONG BUY

Bought more this morning, now approaching maximum weight. Don't look at where it's been; look at where you think it's going. Thinks it'll be a go-to name (along with CVE) over the XOM's and CVX's of the world.

Sees 30-40% upside from here at $80 oil. CEO is a stud. International $$ is underweight energy, and they'll come to Canada and buy this name.

HOLD
When is it time to take profits?

Likes the SU story at 27% earnings growth, trading at 12x PE. Everyone's metrics are based on $72 oil, and just look where oil's at. He loves this stock, but his call is that oil will probably come down (he could be wrong).

Valuation still isn't bad. Profile for Canadian oil vs. international oil is really good, given our nation-building projects and support. Don't sell, even if everything else goes up. Good insurance policy, and still a really good long-term stock.

BUY
SU vs. CNQ

Overall, SU is on the right trajectory and run efficiently. CNQ does have the nat gas component, so if that price appreciates we may see a bump in the stock price.

Consider investing in both. Both provide stable dividends, backed by the price of oil. Both were doing quite well even before the Iran conflict, which has just added to the performance. Remember that diversification is key.

HOLD

Tough slog since 2014, fantastic turnaround. Oil sands projects are difficult. Generally, reserve life in oil sands is pretty long. Consolidation in sector is continuing.

SELL

Tremendous respect for the company and the CEO. Fairly valued right now, though multiple is a bit less than CNQ. Barring some geopolitical event, such as Ukraine striking actual production facility in Russia, he's challenged to see oil spiking over the short term. No reason to own right now.

See his Top Picks for a name that can make his clients more money.

BUY

He likes the Oil Sands. As Canada builds more infrastructure to tap into our energy supplies, value from SU will be realized. These are long-life reserves, well-managed with long operating costs. They make a lot of money and pay a lot of dividends. He has no opinion on whether SU will buy Baytex, but consolidation happens in Canadian energy.

HOLD

Has done relatively well over the last few years, especially considering the price of oil. Does bump up and down with the oil price. Generally understood that low reserve life will be addressed via acquisition. Safe and secure exposure in the space.

HOLD

Commodity price has been weak. As well, seeing some rotation out of the large caps. CVE deal with MEG is taking up a lot of investor appetite. Management doing great job. He owns CNQ instead, likes those assets better.

WEAK BUY

Very well run. His go-to name (along with CNQ) for dividends and energy exposure. Right now, he owns CNQ. Valuations between the two are comparable. CNQ has more flexible capital allocation choices.

New CEO has done a wonderful job making it more efficient. Chris is a cashflow-focused investor. Some of these energy names just gush cash, and they're all keen to return capital to shareholders. Oil price is down, so good time to buy. He prefers CNQ, but SU is a reasonable choice for a dividend-seeking investor.

SELL
Time to sell?

Safety incidents. New management team has improved operations, and stock's done well. Production is aging, so they're going to have to secure new. Older assets. Yield is ~4%.

Though she doesn't trade, she's going to recommend a switch. Not on short-term valuation metrics, but for a longer-term energy play. And that's CNQ.

HOLD

Very impressive turnaround under new management team. They're about 1.5 years through their 3-year plan, and ahead of schedule. Exceeded every target set. Deep cultural change is important to highlight. Breakeven (including dividend) has moved into the range of mid-$40 US a barrel.

Returning 100% of FCF to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. Well-integrated, solid model insulates it from low oil price.

DON'T BUY

A core Canadian energy name, along with CNQ. Still, energy space has been very tough. Prices have been low, OPEC producing more than expected. Regulatory environment in Canada is challenged, as is the macro global economy. 

HOLD
Up 134%. Hold? Sell?

Definitely continue to hold. Still sees quite a bit of upside. Has done quite well this year, after having safety issues 3-4 years ago. Trying to go more green. Integration gives it nice diversification. One of his core holdings.