Suncor Energy Inc (SU.TO)

A lot like CVE-T, being integrated and owning Petro Canada, they don’t have the same exposure to the price differential that CNQ-T would. The Pipeline is still a factor. Thinks it will underperform CNQ-T if the differential gets fixed.

(Top Pick Jan 2/12, Up 1.22%) Model $63.17, 84% positive differential. Owned for years and fits his definition of value. A core position for his portfolio.

If Keystone is approved, what effect could this have on this company? Would be positive for a lot of companies. There is a story around that capacity of the shipments to the refineries in the gulf are short by 1 million barrels a day. If heavy crude comes down from Canada, there is an opportunity to replace some of the Mexican and Venezuelan heavy oil. There is potential demand for 3-3.5 million barrels a day. There is also some demand coming for shipping oil from the West to the East, which will play well for this company. If he were going back into the oil sands, he would have a very hard look at this one.

It won’t spike up to 45 any time soon as in the early part of 2011. If you see 35, it is at the upper end of its trading range.

It is not going to take off. He has a muted outlook on oil itself. Because of problems in Canadian resource sector last year it didn’t do well but this year you can look for a better year. Brought more production on line. A good solid return but it won’t take off.

(A Top Pick Feb 13/12. Up 1.51%.) Sold his holdings in November but has gotten back in. His view on the Western Canadian select differential from WTI has blown out and this is now an enormous discount of about 45%. He sees the differential closing which will be a huge benefit to this company.

Thinks they will be increasing their 1.6% dividend in the next couple of months by about 50%. Would generate about $2 billion of free cash flow this year while growing production by 10%. Cheapest integrated name globally trading at about 5.5X cash flow with a 30 year reserve life. Protected from 2013 heavy oil differentials.

Looking interesting. Seasonal from end of January to May. SU benefits from this. You are starting to see initial signs of outperformance. It looks like one you want to stick with until end of May.

Oil, seasonably, is coming into a good phase right now. Chart is showing that we are starting to get near some near-term upside.

(A Top Pick Dec 19/11. Up 18.5%.) Stock would be doing a lot better if people were sure it could get its product to market. Still likes and is still buying.

This has always been sort of his 2^nd favourite to Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T). If you see a reversal by TransCanada Pipe (TRP-T) to oil from natural gas and they get some of the product to Montréal, you could see it move higher.

Quality company. Is a champion in Canada. What they need is a higher oil price, as they all do. Nothing wrong with it. Buy in $30 range. Trade into mid-30s. Years out, fracking will have an impact on energy prices. We may have a lot more energy than we think we have.

Has a lot of oil sands interest, which have a fixed cost aspect. If you can’t move your product out of Alberta at a price that is reasonably close to the WT I, your margins are squeezed.

(A Top Pick Dec 28/11. Up 14.37%.) Still has decent growth. He feels valuation is inexpensive. Still likes.

Best managed and the biggest. Managed to digest Petrocan and get rid of a lot of the bits they didn’t want. Very profitable and successful but is the proxy for Canadian integrated producers and, at the moment, that is not where people want to be. He believes that will close over the next 1 to 1.5 years.