Suncor Energy Inc (SU.TO)

Has sold all of his energy holdings. Energy has 2 seasons. The 1^st run ends in May followed by a 2^nd run starting in late July. His holdings ran right through the weak period and he started to reduce in early July. He is now currently looking as to when to get back into the energy sector. Thinks there will be an opportunity between now and late September.

(A Top Pick Sept 4/13. Up 25.39%.) Lately stocks have held up quite a bit better than the commodity price of oil. Selling for a reasonable multiple at 1.5X BV. Trading at about 11X next year’s earnings. 2.5% dividend yield. A well diversified play on the energy industry.

Refiners are making a huge margin. SU-T are growing their oil sands production.

They broke a support level and established a downward trend. They have underperformed the market and are below the 20 day moving average. Three technicals against you. Fundamentals suggest a bit of caution here.

This is a benchmark name. Over time he noticed that energy is pretty strong in Canada and appeals to Canadian and international investors. He thinks it should be a core holding. Ultimately has good leverage to oil prices. But if oil is below $90 it will not do well.

(A Top Pick Aug 7/13. Up 27.99%.) This had a negative transit in one of his EBV lines, so he would be cautious on ih. Hopefully the EBV +2 level holds. It could fall back to EBV +1 at $36.50. Energy, certainly in the last 6 weeks, has been a tough sector to be in. He shows this could have an 87% upside. Yielding 2.67%.

This is a bit boring at the present time. The oil sands has become a major part of their production. Have a good following in the US. Not much exciting about the stock at the present time. Very solid, and on a long-term basis it is a fine investment. Don’t expect too much performance out of it in the intermediate term. Q2 was slightly below expectations were the others surprised with better growth.

Really likes the stock. Have made some very good decisions on exiting areas where they don’t get the rates of return that they want. They have the more important aspects of their business and they really do think about this when they are buying or exiting assets. This is a great story at these levels. Expects there is more upside and it is not expensive. Decent dividend. This is something that you can own for many, many years.

These big material and energy names you need to be very careful of. You watch the cycle and trade in and out of them. At this point, he feels this company still has good tailwinds behind it right now.

Chart shows a breakout earlier this year and it ran up. However, with crude running into difficulty, this could be a problem. The lower fruit has been picked and he would back away from this group.

He sees growing cash flow. Likes what the new management is doing of returning capital to shareholders and following the Exxon plan. Could be a much higher stock than it is today.

Likes this long term. Good production profile. Also, likes its refining and marketing. Raised its dividend and will probably do it again next quarter. There is lots of room for the dividend to go up. Had some production difficulties last quarter, in both upstream and refining sides. More importantly the price of oil has gone down to about $97, which hurt energy stocks in general. Unlike a lot of its competitors, 100% of its production is sold at full WTI price.

Likes this a lot. There is a lot of upside potential. His Fair Market Value is quite high. Has been recommending the stock for some time. Probably has another 30%-40% to go before he would consider it to be expensive.

Behaving extremely well. The thesis is that the bottleneck in transportation from Canada to US is starting to break up a little bit. A great balanced portfolio to own. A great core holding to own. You will see $50 again in your lifetime.

Probably needs a minor correction after a huge run. It is well above its 40 week moving average. It could correct or just stop moving.